The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.
-Jeremy Grantham
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham published his latest market outlook this week.
Here is the summarization of his main point:
This is a bubble.
It's impossible to predict the exact top of a bubble.
「I know that this market can soar upwards for a few more weeks or even months – it feels like we could be anywhere between July 1999 and February 2000. My best guess as to the longest this bubble might survive is late spring or early summer, coinciding with the broad rollout of the COVID vaccine. At that moment, the most pressing issue facing the world economy will have been solved. Market participants will breathe a sigh of relief, look around, and immediately realize that the economy is still in poor shape, the stimulus will shortly be cut back with the end of the COVID crisis, and valuations are absurd. 「Buy the rumor, sell the news.」 But remember that timing the bursting of bubbles has a long history of disappointment.」
Here is the original article if you are interested:
Source: GMO
Editor: Tommy