Asia Grocery Distribution Limited (HKG:8413) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness.    But the last month did very little to improve the 68% share price decline over the last year.  

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Asia Grocery Distribution's P/S ratio of 0.5x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Consumer Retailing industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.6x.  However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.    

View our latest analysis for Asia Grocery Distribution

SEHK:8413 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry January 29th 2024

How Asia Grocery Distribution Has Been Performing

Asia Grocery Distribution has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace.   It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S from rising.  Those who are bullish on Asia Grocery Distribution will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.    

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Asia Grocery Distribution's earnings, revenue and cash flow.  

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?  

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Asia Grocery Distribution's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.  

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 14% last year.   The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 40% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance.  Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.  

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is pretty similar based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's understandable that Asia Grocery Distribution's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies.  It seems most investors are expecting to see average growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a moderate amount for the stock.  

The Final Word

Asia Grocery Distribution's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry.      It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

It appears to us that Asia Grocery Distribution maintains its moderate P/S off the back of its recent three-year growth being in line with the wider industry forecast.  Currently, with a past revenue trend that aligns closely wit the industry outlook, shareholders are confident the company's future revenue outlook won't contain any major surprises.  Given the current circumstances, it seems improbable that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.    

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Asia Grocery Distribution (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.  

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.