Marco Polo Marine Ltd.'s (SGX:5LY) robust recent earnings didn't do much to move the stock. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.
See our latest analysis for Marco Polo Marine
Zooming In On Marco Polo Marine's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to September 2023, Marco Polo Marine had an accrual ratio of 0.24. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Even though it reported a profit of S$22.6m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through S$4.3m in the last year. It's worth noting that Marco Polo Marine generated positive FCF of S$24m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. One positive for Marco Polo Marine shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Marco Polo Marine's Profit Performance
Marco Polo Marine's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Marco Polo Marine's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. The good news is that its earnings per share increased slightly in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Marco Polo Marine as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Marco Polo Marine (1 is concerning) you should be familiar with.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Marco Polo Marine's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.