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Shanghai New World Co., Ltd (SHSE:600628) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

上海新世界有限公司(SHSE:600628)の株価は堅調ですが、基本的な要素は不透明です。将来は何が待ち受けているのでしょうか?

Simply Wall St ·  01/10 19:09

Shanghai New World's (SHSE:600628) stock is up by a considerable 12% over the past week. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Shanghai New World's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Shanghai New World

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Shanghai New World is:

0.8% = CN¥32m ÷ CN¥4.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every CN¥1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CN¥0.01.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Shanghai New World's Earnings Growth And 0.8% ROE

It is quite clear that Shanghai New World's ROE is rather low. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 8.5%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 47% seen by Shanghai New World over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

That being said, we compared Shanghai New World's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 11% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:600628 Past Earnings Growth January 11th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Shanghai New World fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Shanghai New World Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 31% (where it is retaining 69% of its profits), Shanghai New World has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, Shanghai New World has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Shanghai New World can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 2 risks we have identified for Shanghai New World.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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