DigitalOcean Holdings' estimated fair value is US$29.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$35.34 suggests DigitalOcean Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
The US$33.60 analyst price target for DOCN is 13% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DOCN) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for DigitalOcean Holdings
Is DigitalOcean Holdings Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$160.2m
US$173.0m
US$182.7m
US$191.1m
US$198.5m
US$205.2m
US$211.5m
US$217.4m
US$223.1m
US$228.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x5
Analyst x3
Est @ 5.61%
Est @ 4.59%
Est @ 3.88%
Est @ 3.38%
Est @ 3.03%
Est @ 2.79%
Est @ 2.62%
Est @ 2.50%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.4%
US$146
US$145
US$140
US$134
US$127
US$120
US$113
US$106
US$99.6
US$93.3
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.2b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.4%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.3b÷ ( 1 + 9.4%)10= US$1.3b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$35.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:DOCN Discounted Cash Flow January 8th 2024
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DigitalOcean Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.432. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for DigitalOcean Holdings
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Balance sheet summary for DOCN.
Weakness
Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Expected to breakeven next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
Is DOCN well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For DigitalOcean Holdings, we've put together three important items you should explore:
Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with DigitalOcean Holdings (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for DOCN's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
