Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Amcor, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.11 = US$1.4b ÷ (US$17b - US$4.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Therefore, Amcor has an ROCE of 11%. By itself that's a normal return on capital and it's in line with the industry's average returns of 11%.
View our latest analysis for Amcor
NYSE:AMCR Return on Capital Employed October 29th 2023
In the above chart we have measured Amcor's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Amcor here for free.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
In terms of Amcor's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 26%, but since then they've fallen to 11%. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
On a side note, Amcor has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 26% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.
In Conclusion...
In summary, Amcor is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. Unsurprisingly then, the total return to shareholders over the last three years has been flat. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don't think Amcor has the makings of a multi-bagger.
One final note, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Amcor (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .
While Amcor isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
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