No-one enjoys it when they lose money on a stock. But it can difficult to make money in a declining market. The Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600908) is down 12% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -2.2% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 11% over the last three years.
Since Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd has shed CN¥559m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
View our latest analysis for Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Although the share price is down over three years, Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd actually managed to grow EPS by 12% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It's strange to see such muted share price performance despite sustained growth. Perhaps a clue lies in other metrics. Therefore, we should look at some other metrics to try to understand why the market is disappointed.
Revenue is actually up 15% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd's TSR for the last 3 years was -2.2%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd shares lost 1.7% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 6.5%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Wuxi Rural Commercial BankLtd that you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.