It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE:PAGS) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 74%. That would be a disturbing experience. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 57% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 36% in the last 90 days.
Since PagSeguro Digital has shed US$189m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Check out our latest analysis for PagSeguro Digital
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, PagSeguro Digital actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 2.8% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 36% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating PagSeguro Digital further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
NYSE:PAGS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 21st 2023
PagSeguro Digital is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that PagSeguro Digital shareholders are down 57% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 10%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how PagSeguro Digital scores on these 3 valuation metrics.
But note: PagSeguro Digital may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
