Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CERE) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
-US$348.4m
-US$376.7m
-US$358.5m
-US$109.5m
US$187.5m
US$287.4m
US$396.4m
US$503.9m
US$602.6m
US$688.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x5
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Est @ 53.30%
Est @ 37.90%
Est @ 27.13%
Est @ 19.58%
Est @ 14.30%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%
-US$326
-US$329
-US$292
-US$83.5
US$134
US$191
US$247
US$293
US$327
US$350
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$511m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$14b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= US$7.1b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$7.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$32.8, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqCM:CERE Discounted Cash Flow January 17th 2023
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.838. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Balance sheet summary for CERE.
Weakness
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
Is CERE well equipped to handle threats?
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings, there are three important elements you should further examine:
Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does CERE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQCM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
