Investors in McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.9% to close at US$560 following the release of its yearly results. McKesson reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$309b and statutory earnings per share of US$22.39, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from McKesson's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$356.3b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 26% to US$29.19. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$338.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$27.81 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$580, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values McKesson at US$671 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$460. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the McKesson's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that McKesson's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect McKesson to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around McKesson's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on McKesson. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple McKesson analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for McKesson that you should be aware of.
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