Zhengtong Finance learned from the Intelligent Finance APP that Easte Securities has released a research report stating that the profit level of green certificate trading, cogeneration of heat and power, and waste incineration remains at a relatively high level. Although affected by subsidy policy adjustments, under the impetus of green certificate trading and the opening of cogeneration of heat and power, waste incineration projects maintain relatively strong profit-making ability. In addition, with the saturation of the market for new space and the expected reduction in capital spending intensity, waste incineration companies have strong dividend-paying ability and willingness, and are expected to be relatively stable. Against the background of the current overall decline in investment returns, high-dividend targets are expected to provide relatively stable dividend cash flows.

The view of Dongfang Securities is as follows:

The waste incineration market is becoming saturated, competition is intensifying, and enterprises are diversifying their development.

Waste incineration and power generation belong to basic livelihood industries, and their demand is stable. Their profitability is relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the economic cycle and is minimally affected by fluctuations in energy and basic production material prices. With the rapid development of the industry, the proportion of urban waste incineration in harmless treatment reached more than 50% for the first time in 2020, and had reached 75% by 2022. China's urban waste incineration treatment capacity has become saturated, and the new market space is limited. According to bidding data, the scale of newly awarded waste incineration projects decreased year by year from 2019 to 2023, with newly awarded scales of 127,000, 74,000, 57,000, 41,000, and 26,000 tons/day, respectively. At the same time, market competition is intensifying. In 2022, state-controlled enterprises in the waste resource comprehensive utilization industry had a 6.7% share of the number of enterprises and held 17.9% of the industry's asset scale. Large-scale state-owned enterprises have developed in a large-scale and intensive manner through mergers and acquisitions, investments, and equipment sales. Chinese waste incineration companies have multiple ways to go global, including Southeast Asia, Europe, the Americas, and others.

The profit level of waste incineration remains relatively high due to green certificate trading and cogeneration of heat and power.

In the context of the adjustment of the national subsidy policy, as the existing projects gradually approach the upper limit of 15 years or 82,500 operating hours, and the new projects are gradually bid for online, the downward trend in waste incineration power generation income has already shown. However, with the formal landing of the green certificate trading and the exploration of waste incineration companies in cogeneration of heat and power, it can partially offset the impact of the decline or exit of the national subsidy. According to the bank's estimation, under the scenario where the green certificate price reaches 90 yuan/piece and the benchmark coal-fired power price is 0.5 yuan/kWh, waste incineration projects with green certificate income can still increase their power generation income by 9% after the national subsidy is completely withdrawn. In cogeneration of heat and power, based on the bank's estimation, within the range of 0.3-0.5 yuan/kWh of the benchmark coal-fired power price, a selling price of more than 50 yuan/GJ is sufficient to make the cogeneration of heat and power more economical. Therefore, waste incineration projects are expected to maintain a relatively high level of profitability.

At present, the dividend payout ratio of waste incineration companies is not high, but their dividend-paying ability and willingness are strong.

The bank has sorted out the dividend yield and annual cash dividend ratio of some listed companies in the waste incineration industry in the past five years. Among them, Junxin shares, Beijing Capital Eco-Environmental Group and other targets have a higher dividend yield. In terms of dividend payout ratio, the minimum dividend payout ratio required by Beijing Capital Eco-Environmental Group's dividend policy is 30% of distributable profits, and dividends have been paid in accordance with the policy requirements for the past five years. The minimum dividend payout ratio required by other enterprise articles of association is generally 10% of distributable profits, and from the actual dividend situation in the past five years, all enterprises are able to pay dividends in accordance with the articles of association. The actual dividend payout ratios of most enterprises in most years are significantly higher than their minimum required ratio of 10%, showing that waste incineration enterprises have strong dividend-paying ability and willingness even under the condition of high capital spending. The dividend payout ratio of Shanghai Environment has continued to increase in the past five years, and the dividend payout ratios of China Everbright International, Yuefeng Environmental Protection, Grandblue Environment, and others have remained stable in the past five years.

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