Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 23% over the past week following Arko Corp.'s (NASDAQ:ARKO) latest first-quarter results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$2.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Arko losing US$0.02 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Arko's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$9.27b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop to approximately break-even in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.075 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the new EPS forecasts.
We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of US$7.90. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arko at US$11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.8% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Arko is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Arko. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Arko's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Arko going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Arko you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.