Zhitong Finance learned that Sinolink Securities released a research report stating that the fluctuation of 1-2M24 port coal prices is more affected by the supply side. On the supply side, the supply has shrunk compared to the same period last year, and the port has shown a fluctuating change of first reducing inventory and then increasing inventory under the change of turnover conditions. On the demand side, with the supplement of long-term coal and imported coal, there has not been a large amount of concentrated purchasing of coal from the port market. Overall, the change in port inventory caused by changes in supply before and after the Spring Festival is the main reason for the stage-wise increase in coal prices after the festival. Looking ahead, after the downward pressure on coal prices in the off-season in March-April, it is expected that the port market coal price in May will rebound to the bottom, but the upward adjustment will be limited. Based on the fluctuation experience of 1-2M24 coal prices, whether the port can successfully reduce inventory is an important condition for the market coal price to rebound after the off-season.

国金証券の主な観点は以下のとおりです。

Supply-side-Inland production: Coal production in January and February 2024 fell compared to the same period last year. In general, the average daily production of raw coal in 1-2M24 was 11.75 million tons, a year-on-year and sequential decrease of 690,000 tons and 1.61 million tons, respectively; the cumulative output of power coal in 1-2M24 was 590 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Since February, the "three excesses" rectification of coal mines in Shanxi has restricted coal supply, and multiple restrictive factors, such as land transportation being hindered due to extreme cold weather before the Spring Festival, this year's holiday for traders being one day more than last year, and the tightening of national safety supervision before the two sessions, have jointly driven the phase of contraction of coal supply from production areas.

Supply-side-Port turnover: the increase of coal price was stimulated by going to inventory during the Spring Festival period, and the restriction of re-accumulating inventory in ports further pushed up the coal price. At the beginning of 2024, the main producing area coal prices remained stable with small fluctuations, and the enthusiasm of traders to ship to the port gradually decreased. Due to factors such as extreme weather hindering land transportation, long downtime during the Spring Festival, etc., the amount of coal imported into ports was rapidly reduced, realizing the reduction of inventory, especially the CNI Bohai Index inventory from February 9th to 17th. After the festival, the production and supply of coal in the mining area resumed. In addition, the large wind and fog weather caused the port to be closed to shipping and affected the foreign transport to some extent. The port has resumed the accumulation of inventory.

In terms of demand, the consumption of power coal in January and February increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with the consumption of electric coal increasing by 9% year-on-year and the consumption of power coal in non-electric departments increasing by 7.6% year-on-year. However, due to the relatively sufficient supply of long-term coal and imported coal, the inventory level of terminal power plants remained at a higher level of 18-20 days, and the overall demand for coal in the port market was weak.

Comprehensively speaking, the fluctuation of port coal prices in 1-2M24 is more affected by the supply side. On the supply side, the supply has shrunk compared to the same period last year, and the port has shown a fluctuating change of first reducing inventory and then increasing inventory under the change of turnover conditions. On the demand side, with the supplement of long-term coal and imported coal, there has not been a large amount of concentrated purchasing of coal from the port market. Overall, the change in port inventory caused by changes in supply before and after the Spring Festival is the main reason for the stage-wise increase in coal prices after the festival.

Looking ahead, after the downward pressure on coal prices in the off-season in March-April, it is expected that the port market coal price in May will rebound to the bottom, but the upward adjustment will be limited. Based on the fluctuation experience of 1-2M24 coal prices, whether the port can successfully reduce inventory is an important condition for the market coal price to rebound after the off-season.

On the supply side, there are both long and short elements. On the one hand, with the introduction of Shanxi's supply guarantee policy, the impact of production-side safety supervision is expected to narrow. On the other hand, the increase in coal importation due to the inverted price will also continue to narrow. Overall, the expected coal supply in May is expected to remain stable compared to the previous month.

On the demand side, with the contraction of heating demand in March-April and the entering of electric power consumption into the traditional off-season, and real estate and infrastructure are still undergoing bottom adjustment, the slow recovery of non-electric departments has led to ports accumulating inventory and a decrease in coal prices. It is expected that the demand for stocking and preparing coal by downstream power plants before the peak summer season in May will stimulate port inventory reduction and boost coal prices.

However, there are still limiting factors that are expected to restrict the degree of port inventory reduction and bottom-up adjustment of coal prices in May: On the supply side, the restriction mainly involves Daqin Railway Maintenance ending earlier than expected at the end of April, Shanxi's "three excesses" control entering the end in May, a reduction in freight rates or the stimulation of coal shipments from Xinjiang, the increase in international coal supply is expected after the end of Ramadan in mid-April. On the demand side, the current downstream power plant coal inventory is relatively high, with no obvious demand for stocking up, and the terminal stocking intensity in May is expected to be small.

24年の鉱業-石炭の需要と供給のバランスが緩和された大きな状況の改変はなく、石炭価格の中心は引き続き下降し、火力発電の利益能力は持続的に改善する可能性があります。以下を注視することをお勧めします：①発電資産が主に電力需要と供給のバランスが偏緊、発電側の競争状況が良好な地域に配置される火力発電企業、例えばzhejiang zheneng electric power(600023.SH)、an hui wenergy(000543.SZ)、huadian power international corporation(600027.SH)等；②発電資産が中西部地域および掘削炭を主力燃料として調達される火力発電企業、例えばjointo energy investment(000600.SZ)、datang international power generation(601991.SH)等。

リスク要因

新しい設備容量が期待されない；石炭価格の下落が期待されない；下流需要が低く、電力需要が低下するため利用時間が期待されない。