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There Might Be More To CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's (HKG:1995) Story Than Just Weak Earnings

There Might Be More To CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's (HKG:1995) Story Than Just Weak Earnings

CIFI Ever Sunshine Survices Group(HKG: 1995)的故事可能不仅仅是收益疲软
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/02 18:10

The market shrugged off CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group Limited's (HKG:1995) weak earnings report. Despite the market responding positively, we think that there are several concerning factors that investors should be aware of.

市场耸了耸肩 旭辉长阳服务集团有限公司的 (HKG: 1995) 收益报告疲软。尽管市场反应积极,但我们认为投资者应注意几个令人担忧的因素。

Check out our latest analysis for CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group

查看我们对旭辉长阳服务集团的最新分析

earnings-and-revenue-history
SEHK:1995 Earnings and Revenue History November 2nd 2023
香港交易所:1995 年收益和收入记录 2023 年 11 月 2 日

Examining Cashflow Against CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's Earnings

根据旭辉永阳服务集团的收益来研究现金流

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

正如金融爱好者已经知道的那样, 现金流应计比率 是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与其利润相匹配程度的关键指标。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时间的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。这个比率告诉我们公司有多少利润没有自由现金流支持。

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流超出了其利润所暗示的范围。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司未来的利润往往会降低”。

Over the twelve months to June 2023, CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group recorded an accrual ratio of 1.14. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥1.1b despite its profit of CN¥343.2m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group generated positive FCF of CN¥511m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

在截至2023年6月的十二个月中,旭辉长阳服务集团的应计比率为1.14。从统计学上讲,这对未来的收益来说确实是负面的。事实上,在此期间,该公司没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流,尽管如上所述,利润为3.432亿元人民币,但仍流出11亿元人民币。值得注意的是,CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group一年前创造了5.11亿元人民币的正FCF,因此至少他们过去曾这样做过。话虽如此,这个故事还有更多。应计比率至少部分反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

不寻常物品对利润的影响

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥60m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

考虑到应计比率,在过去十二个月中,CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group的利润受到价值6000万元人民币的不寻常物品的提振也就不足为奇了。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当不寻常的物品做出重大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎一些。我们统计了全球大多数上市公司的数字,在自然界中,一次性出现不寻常物品的情况很常见。考虑到这个名字,这并不奇怪。假设这些不寻常的项目在本年度不会再次出现,因此我们预计明年的利润将疲软(也就是说,在业务没有增长的情况下)。

Our Take On CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's Profit Performance

我们对旭辉长阳服务集团盈利表现的看法

Summing up, CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group (2 make us uncomfortable!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

综上所述,旭辉永阳服务集团从不寻常的项目中获得了不错的利润提振,但无法将其票面利润与自由现金流相提并论。考虑到所有这些,我们认为CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group的利润可能给人留下过于慷慨的印象,即其可持续的盈利水平。如果你想更深入地了解CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group,你还需要研究其目前面临的风险。当我们进行研究时,我们发现 CIFI Eversunshine 服务集团有 4 个警告标志 (2 让我们不舒服!)我们认为这值得你充分关注。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

在这篇文章中,我们研究了许多可能损害利润数字效用的因素,我们持谨慎态度。但是还有很多其他方法可以告诉你对公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率表明商业经济状况良好,而另一些人则喜欢 “关注资金”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。所以你可能希望看到这个 免费的 一系列拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在买入的股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

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