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The chip shortage looks like the oil shortage of the 1970s. What it means for stocks and the economy.
The chip shortage looks like the oil shortage of the 1970s. What it means for stocks and the economy.
By Al Root
Semiconductors might be the new oil -- and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.
Back then, the world ran on oil -- and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.
The spike was good news for $Chevron Corp(CVX.US)$ and $Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.US)$, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.
If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.
Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a years-long process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.
"Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary...a product more known for steadily declining prices."
-TS Lombard's Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January when the scarcity of chips
The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by $Toyota Motor Corp(TM.US)$ this past week show the problem isn't going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.
Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn't being as readily added by chipmakers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.
The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.
That's not good for consumers, but automakers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that's been offset by higher prices. $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$ and $General Motors Co(GM.US)$ shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.
And that's just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise for all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as $Intel Corp(INTC.US)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd(TSM.US)$. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.
Don't expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 20, 2021 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
By Al Root
按Al Root
Semiconductors might be the new oil -- and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.
半导体可能是新的石油--这可能使本世纪20年代成为新的70年代。
Back then, the world ran on oil -- and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.
当时,世界都是靠石油运转的,供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大的影响。当石油输出国组织(OPEC)在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时,原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到本世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。
The spike was good news for $Chevron Corp(CVX.US)$ and $Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.US)$, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.
这一涨幅对我们来说是个好消息。$雪佛龙(CVX.US)$和$埃克森美孚(XOM.US)$上世纪70年代,这两只股票的回报率分别约为100%和70%,但随着通胀加剧,其他所有人都感到痛苦。过去十年,标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数分别仅上涨了17%和5%。
If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.
如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分,那么芯片在本世纪20年代提供了同样的功能。从我们的电脑和手机到我们的汽车和家用电器,它们为一切提供动力。而且,到目前为止,每个人都知道存在短缺,根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据,交货时间增长到了20周以上。
Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a years-long process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.
世界上大约80%的芯片都是在东北亚制造的。政客们意识到这是一个多么大的问题,他们已经开始要求本地制造,美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)今年早些时候提出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。转移任何行业,包括半导体,都是一个长达数年的过程,需要数十亿美元的资金。将会有赢家和输家。如果这种情况持续太久,就会渗透到各种商品的价格中。
"Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary...a product more known for steadily declining prices."
-TS Lombard's Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January when the scarcity of chips
“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通胀……这是一种更以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品。”
-TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在1月份写道,当时芯片稀缺
The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by $Toyota Motor Corp(TM.US)$ this past week show the problem isn't going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.
全球半导体短缺一直是汽车行业全年的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年之前自行解决。但更多的减产是由$丰田汽车(美国)$过去一周的情况表明,这个问题不会很快消失。事实上,加拿大皇家银行(RBC)分析师约瑟夫·斯派克(Joseph Spak)认为,短缺可能会持续数年。
Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn't being as readily added by chipmakers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.
斯派克说,部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力,但汽车业通常依赖老一代芯片技术,而芯片制造商并不那么容易增加产能。相反,他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。
The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.
结果是:不是在加油站排队,而是在汽车经销商那里排队。较低的新车和二手车库存推高了价格,并加剧了通胀。二手车价格在2021年上半年上涨了约20%,而新车价格上涨了约3%。二手车价格的上涨已经开始放缓,但新车价格上涨正在加速,7月份同比上涨约7%。
That's not good for consumers, but automakers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that's been offset by higher prices. $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$ and $General Motors Co(GM.US)$ shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.
这对消费者来说不是好事,但汽车制造商将从中受益。限产将导致持续的低库存和更高的定价。公司的汽车销量将会减少,但这已经被更高的价格所抵消。$福特汽车公司(F.US)$和$通用汽车(通用汽车美国)$2021年,股价分别上涨了43%和17%,这两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年的7倍。
And that's just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise for all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as $Intel Corp(INTC.US)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd(TSM.US)$. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.
这只是汽车业的情况。芯片短缺持续的时间越长,所有类型产品的价格都会上涨得越多。这将使芯片制造商受益,如$英特尔(INTC.US)$和$台积电(TSM.US)$。华尔街看到了后者的上行空间。约三分之二的分析师涵盖了它购买的股票利率,平均目标价意味着上涨约33%。
Don't expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.
不要指望RadioShack外排起长队,但预计芯片短缺也会同样感受到。
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
写信给Al Root,地址是allen.root@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道琼通讯社
August 20, 2021 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT)
2021年8月20日美国东部时间21:18(格林尼治标准时间01:18)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
版权所有(C)2021年道琼斯公司
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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