share_log

Biden's EV plan means billions in spending. Here's who benefits

Biden's EV plan means billions in spending. Here's who benefits

拜登的电动汽车计划意味着数十亿美元的支出。以下是受益的人
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/08/05 12:03

President Biden wants half of all new car sales in America to be electric by the end of the decade. It's a bold goal -- and it won't be easy. It will require a lot of lithium, batteries, EV charging, and EV manufacturing capacity. Most important, it will require billions and billions of dollars.

拜登总统希望到本世纪末,美国一半的新车销量都是电动的。这是一个大胆的目标--而且并不容易。这将需要大量的锂、电池、电动汽车充电和电动汽车制造能力。最重要的是,这将需要数十亿美元。

Wednesday, the White House announced plans for Biden to sign an executive order supporting his goals of boosting the U.S. EV business. "The President believes it is time for the U.S. to lead in electric vehicle manufacturing, infrastructure, and innovation," reads the news release.

星期三,白宫宣布计划让拜登签署一项行政命令,支持他促进美国电动汽车业务的目标。“总统认为,现在是美国在电动汽车制造、基础设施和创新方面发挥领导作用的时候了,”阅读新闻稿。

It's a tall order. There are only about 2 million EVs on U.S. roads today, and only about 2% of all cars sold in 2020 were all-electric. That works out to roughly 250,000 out of 16 million light vehicles. What's more, $General Motors Co(GM.US)$ delivered 1.3 million cars in the U.S. during the first half of 2021, and only 20,300 were EVs, just 1.6%.

这是一项艰巨的任务。目前美国道路上仅有约200万辆电动汽车,2020年售出的所有汽车中仅有约2%是全电动的。这相当于1600万辆轻型汽车中的大约25万辆。更重要的是,$通用汽车公司(GM.US)$2021年上半年,美国交付了130万辆汽车,电动汽车只有20,300辆,仅占1.6%。

GM, of course, has already announced plans to invest $35 billion in EV development between 2020 and 2025, which includes about $8 billion for battery capacity. That is supposed to result in 1 million EV sales a year, giving investors a useful rule of thumb.

当然,通用汽车已经宣布了在2020年至2025年期间在电动汽车开发上投资350亿美元的计划,其中包括约80亿美元的电池产能。预计这将带来每年100万辆电动汽车的销量,给投资者一个有用的经验法则。

If one million EVs need $8 billion of battery capacity, then 8 million EVs -- about 50% of U.S. annual light vehicle sales -- will require $64 billion.

如果100万辆电动汽车需要80亿美元的电池容量,那么800万辆电动汽车--约占美国轻型汽车年销量的50%--将需要640亿美元。

And that's just the battery capacity. Auto makers have to engineer and assemble the EVs too. Estimating capacity costs is a little harder because car plants have to be maintained and updated continuously. $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$ spends roughly $5 billion to $7 billion a year maintaining and updating its 5 million to 6 million car assembly capacity. But $Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US)$ has spent roughly $5 billion over the past few years installing about 1.5 million units of brand new EV capacity in Shanghai, Germany, and Texas -- call it $3 billion for 1 million in assembly capacity. That means an additional $22 billion will need to be spent to increase and retool automotive capacity.

这只是电池容量。汽车制造商也必须设计和组装电动汽车。估算产能成本有些困难,因为汽车工厂必须持续维护和更新。$福特汽车公司(F.US)$该公司每年花费约50亿至70亿美元维护和更新其500万至600万辆汽车的组装能力。但$Tesla,Inc.(TSLA.US)$该公司在过去几年里花费了约50亿美元,在上海、德国和德克萨斯州安装了约150万辆全新的电动汽车产能--100万辆的组装产能就相当于30亿美元。这意味着将需要额外花费220亿美元来增加和重组汽车产能。

Then there is charging infrastructure. There are 150,000 gas stations in America and only a few thousand fast-charging stations. Of course, people plug EVs in at home, but they still need to be able to charge up while on the road. The fastest chargers cost about $100,000 each, according to Arcady Sosinov, CEO of FreeWire, which builds charging equipment with battery backup that doesn't require complicated utility hookups. That price doesn't include installation. To get to, say, 50,000 fast-charging stations might require another $10 billion.

然后是充电基础设施。美国有15万个加油站,而快速充电站只有几千个。当然,人们在家里给电动汽车插上电源,但他们仍然需要能够在路上充电。FreeWire首席执行官阿尔卡迪·索西诺夫(Arcady Sosinov)表示,最快的充电器每个售价约为10万美元。FreeWire是一家制造充电设备的公司,配备备用电池,不需要复杂的电力连接。这个价格不包括安装费。比方说,要到达5万个快速充电站,可能还需要100亿美元。

That's almost $100 billion in spending over the next nine years -- in the U.S. alone -- to have the capacity to build enough cars and batteries to reach Biden's goal and to keep the infrastructure to enable their adoption. It's certainly possible to spend that -- there will be many companies, many industries, and many years involved -- and that's good news for EV charging companies such as $CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INC(CHPT.US)$ and providers of capital and automation equipment such as $Rockwell Automation Inc(ROK.US)$, among others.

这相当于未来九年(仅在美国)近1000亿美元的支出,目的是有能力制造足够的汽车和电池,以实现拜登的目标,并保持基础设施,使它们能够被采用。这当然是有可能的--将有许多公司,许多行业,以及多年的参与-这对电动汽车充电公司来说是个好消息,比如$ChargePoint Holdings Inc(CHPT.US)$以及资本和自动化设备提供商,如$罗克韦尔自动化公司(ROK.US)$,等等。

It's also good for battery makers such as China's $Contemporary Amperex Technology(300750.SZ)$, which has spent about $3 billion over the past 12 months boosting its capacity as Chinese EV sales expand rapidly. All the largest battery makers in the world are foreign, based in Korea, Japan, and China.

这对像中国这样的电池制造商来说也是件好事$当代安培科技(300750.SZ)$该公司在过去12个月中花费了约30亿美元,随着中国电动汽车销量的快速增长,该公司提高了产能。世界上所有最大的电池制造商都是外国公司,总部设在韩国、日本和中国。

The spending won't stop there. Batteries need lithium, so the lithium mining industry has to ramp capacity too. In 2020, the world was mining about 400,000 tons of lithium a year, enough to power 2 million to 3 million EVs a year, although only about one-third of global output is destined for cars. Don't forget phones need batteries too.

支出不会止步于此。电池需要锂,因此锂采矿业也必须提高产能。2020年,全球每年开采约40万吨锂,足以为200万至300万辆电动汽车提供动力,尽管全球产量中只有约三分之一用于汽车。别忘了手机也需要电池。

If the U.S. is making 8 million EVs and the rest of the world is doing similar things, then the world will need to mine an incremental 5 million tons of lithium a year. It's a massive 13-fold increase for the industry. That's means demand growth as far as the eye can see and is good news for miners such as Albemarle (ALB). Albemarle is spending about $800 million $900 million a year on maintaining and expanding its operations. Albemarle has a roughly 20% market share of the global lithium mining market. That doesn't including lithium refining, however, which mainly happens in China.

如果美国生产800万辆电动汽车,世界其他国家也在做类似的事情,那么世界每年将需要开采500万吨锂。对于这个行业来说,这是一个巨大的13倍的增长。这意味着需求增长一目了然,对阿尔伯玛尔(Albemarle)等矿商来说是个好消息。Albemarle每年花费约8亿美元和9亿美元来维持和扩大业务。Albemarle在全球锂开采市场占有约20%的市场份额。不过,这还不包括主要在中国进行的锂精炼。

All this adds up to about 40 billion lithium-ion battery cells for the U.S. by 2030 and, perhaps, 225 billion annually for the globe. It's a huge number and doesn't include batteries going into power storage applications for utilities and backup power for consumers.

所有这些加起来,到2030年,美国的锂离子电池将达到约400亿块,全球每年可能达到225亿块。这是一个巨大的数字,这还不包括用于公用事业的储电应用和消费者的备用电源的电池。

It's a massive transition, one that has been enabled by falling battery costs and success from the likes of Tesla. But taking it mainstream will require hundreds of billions of dollars. It's one of the largest changes in the car business in the last 100-plus years.

这是一个巨大的转变,电池成本的下降和特斯拉(Tesla)等公司的成功使这一转变成为可能。但将其纳入主流将需要数千亿美元。这是过去100多年来汽车业最大的变化之一。

For not, stocks aren't really reacting to the announcement. Tesla is up 1.2% The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

不幸的是,股市对这一声明并没有真正的反应。特斯拉上涨1.2%,标普500指数和道琼工业指数分别上涨0.4%和0.6%。

The market doesn't typically react to 2030 targets set by politicians -- but the transition is under way nonetheless.

市场通常不会对政界人士设定的2030年目标做出反应,但过渡仍在进行中。

Write to allen.root@dowjones.com

写信给allen.root@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道琼通讯社

August 05, 2021 11:30 ET (15:30 GMT)

美国东部时间2021年8月5日11:30(格林尼治标准时间15:30)

Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

版权所有(C)2021年道琼斯公司

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发