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Are Investors Undervaluing Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) By 30%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) By 30%?
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Grab Holdings is US$4.68 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$3.29 suggests Grab Holdings is potentially 30% undervalued
- Analyst price target for GRAB is US$4.65 which is similar to our fair value estimate
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$110.4m | US$433.0m | US$593.0m | US$716.3m | US$825.4m | US$919.2m | US$998.5m | US$1.07b | US$1.12b | US$1.17b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x7 | Analyst x7 | Analyst x5 | Est @ 20.79% | Est @ 15.24% | Est @ 11.35% | Est @ 8.64% | Est @ 6.73% | Est @ 5.40% | Est @ 4.47% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | US$103 | US$379 | US$485 | US$548 | US$590 | US$615 | US$625 | US$623 | US$614 | US$600 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$5.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.2b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.3%) = US$26b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$26b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US$13b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$18b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$3.3, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Grab Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.010. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Grab Holdings
- Cash in surplus of total debt.
- Balance sheet summary for GRAB.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Forecast to reduce losses next year.
- Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Is GRAB well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Grab Holdings, we've compiled three relevant elements you should explore:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Grab Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does GRAB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流,Grab Holdings的预计公允价值为4.68美元
- 目前3.29美元的股价表明Grab Holdings可能被低估了30%
- 分析师对GRAB的目标股价为4.65美元,与我们的公允价值估计相似
今天,我们将介绍一种估算Grab Holdings Limited(纳斯达克股票代码:GRAB)内在价值的方法,即采用预期的未来现金流并将其折扣为今天的价值。实现这一目标的一种方法是使用折扣现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,这并不难理解,正如你将从我们的例子中看到的那样!
公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。任何有兴趣进一步了解内在价值的人都应该读一读 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
该模型
我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百万) | 110.4 亿美元 | 433.0 亿美元 | 593.0 亿美元 | 716.3 亿美元 | 825.4 亿美元 | 919.2 亿美元 | 998.5 亿美元 | 10.7 亿美元 | 11.2 亿美元 | 11.7 亿美元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x7 | 分析师 x7 | 分析师 x5 | 估计 @ 20.79% | 美国东部时间 @ 15.24% | Est @ 11.35% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 8.64% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 6.73% | 美国东部时间 @ 5.40% | Est @ 4.47% |
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 6.9% | 103 美元 | 379 美元 | 485 美元 | 548 美元 | 590 美元 | 615 美元 | 625 美元 | 623 美元 | 614 美元 | 600 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10 年期现金流 (PVCF) 的现值 = 52 亿美元
在计算了最初10年期内未来现金流的现值之后,我们需要计算终值,该终值涵盖了第一阶段以后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(2.3%)来估计未来的增长。与10年 “增长” 期一样,我们将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值,使用6.9%的股本成本。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 12亿美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9% — 2.3%) = 260亿美元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 260亿美元÷ (1 + 6.9%)10= 130 亿美元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总额加上贴现的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为180亿美元。最后一步是将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。与目前的3.3美元股价相比,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,比目前的股价折扣了30%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度,最终进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。
假设
上面的计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,那就自己计算一下,试一试假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将Grab Holdings视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.9%,这是基于1.010的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
Grab 控股的 SWOT 分析
- 现金盈余占债务总额。
- GRAB 的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年中,股东被稀释了。
- 预计明年将减少损失。
- 根据当前的自由现金流,有足够的现金流超过3年。
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- 运营现金流无法很好地覆盖债务。
- GRAB 有足够的能力应对威胁吗?
展望未来:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为 “需要哪些假设才能低估/高估这只股票的价值?” 的指南如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。我们能否弄清楚为什么公司的交易价格低于内在价值?对于Grab Holdings,我们整理了三个值得探索的相关元素:
- 风险:例如,冒险——Grab Holdings有1个我们认为你应该注意的警告信号。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,GRAB的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只美国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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