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China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Shareholders Are Still up 53% Over 5 Years Despite Pulling Back 4.6% in the Past Week
China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Shareholders Are Still up 53% Over 5 Years Despite Pulling Back 4.6% in the Past Week
While China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 18% in the last quarter. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 47% in that time. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 36% drop, in the last year.
In light of the stock dropping 4.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
Check out our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, China Mengniu Dairy moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. Indeed, the China Mengniu Dairy share price has gained 9.5% in three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 17% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 3.1% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:2319 Earnings Per Share Growth September 27th 2022We know that China Mengniu Dairy has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Mengniu Dairy the TSR over the last 5 years was 53%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that China Mengniu Dairy shareholders are down 35% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 22%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with China Mengniu Dairy , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
而当蒙牛乳业股份有限公司(HKG:2319)股东可能普遍满意,该股最近表现不是特别好,股价在上个季度下跌了18%。从好的方面来看,过去五年的回报相当不错。毕竟,在这段时间里,该公司股价上涨了47%,涨幅超过了市场。虽然长期回报令人印象深刻,但考虑到去年下跌了36%,我们确实对最近买入的人表示了一些同情。
鉴于该公司股价在过去一周下跌了4.6%,我们希望调查更长期的情况,看看基本面因素是否是该公司五年来正回报的驱动因素。
看看我们对蒙牛乳业的最新分析
用巴菲特的话说,“船只将在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球协会将蓬勃发展。市场上的价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异……”考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
在股价增长的五年里,蒙牛乳业从亏损转为盈利。这通常会被认为是积极的,所以我们预计股价会上涨。由于该公司五年前没有盈利,而不是三年前,过去三年的回报也值得一看。事实上,蒙牛乳业的股价在三年内上涨了9.5%。与此同时,每股收益每年增长17%。这一每股收益增长高于同期股价3.1%的年均增幅。因此,你可能会得出结论,这些天市场对该股的态度稍微谨慎了一些。
下图显示了EPS是如何随着时间的推移进行跟踪的(如果您点击该图像,您可以看到更多详细信息)。
联交所:2022年9月27日每股盈利增长2319我们知道蒙牛乳业最近提高了利润,但它会增长收入吗?你可以看看这个免费显示分析师收入预测的报告。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。我们注意到,蒙牛乳业在过去5年的总回报率为53%,好于上文提到的股价回报率。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
我们遗憾地报告,蒙牛乳业的股东今年以来下跌了35%(即使包括股息)。不幸的是,这比大盘22%的跌幅还要糟糕。然而,这可能只是因为股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。也许有必要关注基本面,以防出现良机。长期投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得9%的收益。最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此可能值得查看基本面数据,以寻找长期增长趋势的迹象。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与蒙牛乳业的合作,了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
如果你更愿意看看另一家公司--一家财务状况可能更好的公司--那么不要错过这一点免费已证明自己能够实现盈利增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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