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Top EV Stocks to Dethrone Tesla as King of the Industry

Top EV Stocks to Dethrone Tesla as King of the Industry

顶级电动汽车股将取代特斯拉成为行业之王
InvestorPlace ·  2022/09/21 11:28

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Once upon a time, Tesla (TSLA) was the "golden goose" in the electric vehicle industry.

很久以前,特斯拉特斯拉(Tmall)是电动汽车行业的“金鹅”。

It burst onto the scene as the first major pure EV maker in the early 2010s. By the middle of the decade, Elon Musk & Co. commanded about 10% of the global electric car market.

它突然出现在现场第一家主要的纯电动汽车制造商在2010年代初。到2015年,埃隆·马斯克公司占据了全球电动汽车市场约10%的份额。

In 2019 and 2020, the company had its big break. Tesla defied analysts' projections and successfully ramped production of its mass-consumer EV, the Model 3. During those two years, Tesla nearly doubled its global EV market share to more than 18%.

2019年和2020年,该公司迎来了重大突破。特斯拉打破了分析师的预测,成功地提高了其大众消费电动汽车的产量。模型3。在这两年里,特斯拉几乎双倍其全球电动汽车市场占有率超过18%。

But its era at the top has come to an end. And now it's time to look for EV stocks to buy to steal Tesla's crown in the EV industry.

但它位居榜首的时代已经结束。现在是时候去寻找电动汽车股票将被买入以夺走特斯拉在电动汽车行业的桂冠.

Stiff new EV competition has entered the fray.

激烈的新电动汽车竞争也加入了这场竞争。

Today, Tesla isn't gaining ground – it's ceding it to its competitors. Tesla's market share has rapidly eroded in 2021 and 2022.

如今,特斯拉并没有取得进展,而是将其拱手让给了竞争对手。特斯拉的市场份额已经迅速被侵蚀2021年和2022年。

As of June 2022 – the latest data available, per BloombergNEF – Tesla's global EV market share stood at just 13.7%:

根据BloombergNEF的最新数据,截至2022年6月,特斯拉的全球电动汽车市场份额仅为13.7%:

That's bad news for Tesla. But it's good news for competitors.

这对特斯拉来说是个坏消息。但这对竞争对手来说是个好消息.

If Tesla is losing market share, that means someone else is gaining market share. And they're gaining market share in a rapidly growing pie.

如果特斯拉正在失去市场份额,这意味着其他公司正在获得市场份额。他们在快速增长的馅饼中获得了市场份额。

Just look at how much the electric vehicle market has grown since Tesla's market share peaked in mid-2020. Global unit sales have risen nearly 300%, from 2.4 million cars in June 2020 to 9.3 million cars in June 2022.

只要看看自2020年年中特斯拉的市场份额达到顶峰以来,电动汽车市场已经增长了多少。全球汽车销量增长了近300%,从2020年6月的240万辆增加到2022年6月的930万辆。

In other words, Tesla's struggles are someone else's fortunes.

换句话说,特斯拉的挣扎就是别人的财富。

So, who is winning these fortunes right now? Well, we have the top three EV stocks to buy right now to dethrone Tesla as the king of the industry.

那么,现在谁赢得了这些财富呢?好的,我们有目前最值得买入的三大电动汽车股票取代特斯拉成为行业之王。

Interestingly, each of these EV stocks is like Tesla. But each is better at a certain wide-appeal characteristic that could allow them to best the reigning titan.

有趣的是,这些电动汽车股票中的每一只都像特斯拉。但每个人都更擅长于某个广受欢迎的特征,这可能会让他们击败卫冕巨人。

Top EV Stocks: LCID

排名靠前的电动汽车股:LCID

Source: Around the World Photos / Shutterstock.com
来源:世界各地的照片/Shutterstock.com

The first EV stock we like as a potential "Tesla killer" is Lucid (LCID).

我们喜欢的第一只电动汽车股票是潜在的特斯拉杀手清澈 (LCID).

For all intents and purposes, Lucid is Tesla – just better.

在所有的意图和目的,Lucid是特斯拉-只是更好。

Tesla built this seemingly untouchable EV empire on top of three critical competitive advantages: talent, technology, and brand. And Lucid is beating it in all three categories.

特斯拉将这个看似不可动摇的电动汽车帝国建立在三大关键竞争优势之上:人才, 技术,以及品牌。而Lucid在所有三个类别中都击败了它。

On the talent front, Tesla has been bleeding out for the past few years. And now most of that talent (the same that built Tesla) now calls Lucid home.

在人才方面,特斯拉在过去几年里一直在流血。现在,这些人才中的大多数(就是打造特斯拉的那个人)现在把Lucid当成了家。

Of course, it all starts with Lucid's CEO Peter Rawlinson, the former chief engineer of the Tesla Model S. Yep. This is the former engineering brain behind Tesla's flagship EV – the one that started it all.

当然,这一切都始于Lucid的首席执行官彼得·罗林森,他曾是特斯拉Model S.Yep的总工程师。这是特斯拉旗舰电动汽车背后的前工程大脑--这一切都是由他开创的。

Supporting him is an impressive team of former Tesla, Audi, Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Ford (F), Intel (INTC), and GM (GM) execs. We're talking about folks who helped start Tesla and turn it into what it is today. And on top of that are very influential people behind some of Apple's hero products, like the iPhone.

支持他的是一支由前特斯拉、奥迪、苹果(AAPL),三星, 福特 (F), 英特尔(INTC),以及全球机制 (全球机制)高管。我们谈论的是那些帮助创立特斯拉并将其转变为今天的公司的人。最重要的是,苹果的一些英雄产品背后有非常有影响力的人,比如iPhone。

This is the most impressive confluence of talent in the EV industry outside of Tesla – and it's not even close. Lucid Motor's management team stacks up equally to the titan. And considering the current trend of Tesla losing talent and Lucid Motors gaining it, the latter will have much more talent than Tesla by 2025.

这是除特斯拉之外电动汽车行业最令人印象深刻的人才汇聚-它甚至还不是很接近。Lucid Motor的管理团队与这位巨头不相上下。考虑到目前特斯拉人才流失和Lucid Motors获得人才的趋势,到2025年,Lucid Motors拥有的人才将比特斯拉多得多。

And indeed, with this remarkable engineering and design team behind it, Lucid has developed, tested, and fine-tuned some of the industry's most impressive technology.

事实上,在这个杰出的工程和设计团队的支持下,Lucid已经开发、测试和微调了一些业内最令人印象深刻的技术。

To answer your question, yes, this technology beats Tesla's EV tech on every key performance indicator.

为了回答你的问题,,这项技术节拍特斯拉的电动汽车技术在每一个关键的性能指标。

We're talking longer driving ranges, more horsepower, denser motors, faster acceleration, tighter control – the works.

我们谈论的是更长的行驶里程,更大的马力,更密集的马达,更快的加速,更严格的控制--这些都是可行的。

Up until last year, those specs were all talk, no walk. But now these super-high-performance Lucid cars are out in the real world. And they're living up to the hype.

直到去年,这些规格都是空谈,而不是步行。但现在,这些超高性能的Lucid汽车已经投入现实世界。他们不辜负炒作的要求。

Sure, these cars also cost an arm and a leg. They start at around $90,000. But that gets us to the last point: branding.

当然,这些车也花了很多钱。起价约为9万美元。但这让我们谈到了最后一点:品牌化.

By making and selling $40,000 Model 3s (which look a lot like Model Ss) to college kids, Tesla has eroded its brand equity. Meanwhile, Lucid is coming to market with a premium brand equity that's strengthened by its exclusivity.

通过向大学生制造和销售售价4万美元的Model 3(看起来很像Model SS),特斯拉侵蚀了自己的品牌资产。同时, Lucid将带着溢价的品牌资产上市,这一点因其排他性而得到加强。

They can get away with selling $90,000-plus cars because they have the brand and tech to match that price point.

他们可以销售9万美元以上的汽车,因为他们拥有与这个价格点相匹配的品牌和技术。

Overall, then, we view Lucid as Tesla – but better. And that's why LCID is one of our top EV stocks to buy right now.

总体而言,我们认为Lucid是特斯拉--但更好。这就是为什么LCID是我们目前最值得买入的电动汽车股票之一。

RIVN: TSLA, but Bigger

RIVN:特斯拉,但更大

Source: Miro Vrlik Photography / Shutterstock.com
来源:Miro Vrlik摄影/Shutterstock.com

Next up is Rivian (RIVN). It's another company that we feel is like Tesla, but it's making bigger cars.

下一位是Rivian (RIVN)。这是另一家我们觉得像特斯拉的公司,但它生产的是更大的汽车。

Rivian is an electric vehicle startup that's designing, manufacturing, and selling high-end electric SUVs and pick-up trucks. Its SUV is a seven-seater with lots of space. Its truck is also spacious, and it has lots of power. Indeed, they are fundamentally unique EVs in the marketplace.

Rivian是一家电动汽车初创公司,设计、制造和销售高端电动SUV和皮卡。它的SUV是一款七座的,有很大的空间。它的卡车也很宽敞,而且动力很大。事实上,它们在市场上基本上是独一无二的电动汽车。

For five very specific reasons, we think Rivian could be one of the biggest EV makers in the world one day.

出于五个非常具体的原因,我们认为Rivian有朝一日可能成为世界上最大的电动汽车制造商之一。

First, this is a leader in a strong demand niche of the burgeoning EV industry. We know that the trucking niche of the automotive market is very large with very durable and strong demand drivers. Presumably, as that portion of the auto market gets electrified, there will emerge an equally large electric truck market. Presently, there is no clear leader in that market. But Rivian has a promising early start with a fantastic first-to-market truck that has among the best specs in the industry. This electric trucking market will support multiple winners, and we're confident Rivian will be one of them.

第一,这是一位领导者在蓬勃发展的电动汽车行业的强劲需求利基市场。我们知道,汽车市场的卡车运输利基市场非常大,拥有非常耐用和强劲的需求驱动因素。据推测,随着汽车市场的这一部分实现电气化,将出现一个同样庞大的电动卡车市场。目前,这个市场还没有明显的领头羊。但Rivian有一个很有希望的早期开端,它是一款出色的率先上市的卡车,拥有业内最好的规格之一。这个电动卡车运输市场将支持多个赢家,我们相信Rivian将是其中之一。

Second, the company has great brand equity, with strong technology and a fantastic first product. Rivian has established exceptional luxury branding and has developed leading EV battery and torque technology. These are two things that are very important for creating a great electric truck. Indeed, the R1T is probably the highest-performing electric pick-up truck in market today. And it should remain so for the foreseeable future.

第二,该公司拥有巨大的品牌资产,拥有强大的技术和出色的首发产品。Rivian建立了卓越的奢侈品牌,并开发了领先的电动汽车电池和扭矩技术。这两件事对于创造一辆伟大的电动卡车非常重要。事实上,R1T可能是当今市场上性能最好的电动皮卡。在可预见的未来,这一点应该保持不变。

Third, Rivian has strong early demand signals. The company has more than 90,000 net preorders in the U.S. and Canada for the R1S and R1T, illustrating that consumers want these cars.

第三,Rivian有强烈的早期需求信号。该公司在美国和加拿大有超过9万辆R1和R1T的净订单,这表明消费者想要这些车。

Fourth, the company has big support and partnerships. Aside from its recently-announced collaboration with Mercedes-Benz (DMLRY) (which gives it incredible runway to European market expansion), Rivian also has a very unique and promising partnership with Amazon (AMZN). The retail giant will buy at least 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from Rivian. The extent of this partnership broadly implies that Amazon has basically picked Rivian as its "horse" in the EV race. And at scale, it will convert its entire delivery fleet into Rivian cars. That represents a huge long-term opportunity.

第四,该公司拥有强大的支持和合作伙伴关系。除了最近宣布的与梅赛德斯-奔驰(这为Rivian拓展欧洲市场提供了令人难以置信的跑道),Rivian还与亚马逊(AMZN)。这家零售巨头将从Rivian购买至少10万辆电动送货车辆。这一合作的程度大致意味着,亚马逊基本上已经选择了Rivian作为其在电动汽车竞赛中的“马”。在规模上,它将把整个送货车队改装成Rivian汽车。这代表着一个巨大的长期机会。

Fifth, Rivian has a mammoth-sized balance sheet. The best thing about Rivian is that it has almost $20 billion in cash on the balance sheet. And that grants the company an almost unfair advantage over peers. Rivian plans to use basically every penny of that cash balance over the next two to three years to develop market-leading tech, secure market-leading supply deals, and establish market-leading production capacity. Rivian's $20 billion should enable it to create an electric vehicle empire by 2025.

第五,Rivian拥有庞大的资产负债表。Rivian最棒的一点是,它的资产负债表上有近200亿美元的现金。这让该公司相对于同行拥有了几乎不公平的优势。Rivian计划在未来两三年将现金余额的每一分钱基本用于开发市场领先的技术、达成市场领先的供应协议,并建立市场领先的产能。Rivian的200亿美元应该使其能够在2025年之前创建一个电动汽车帝国。

Overall, then, Rivian has the necessary ingredients to dominate Tesla in the eSUV and electric pick-up truck market. We really like RIVN stock for its long-term potential.

总体而言,Rivian具备在电动SUV和电动皮卡市场称霸特斯拉的必要要素。我们真的很喜欢RIVN的股票,因为它具有长期潜力。

TSLA-Beating EV Stocks: FSR

特斯拉击败电动汽车股票:FSR

Source: Eric Broder Van Dyke / Shutterstock.com
消息来源:埃里克·布罗德·范·戴克/Shutterstock.com

Finally, we have Fisker (FSR) – a company we view as a cheaper version of Tesla.

最后,我们有菲斯克 (FSR)-一家我们认为是廉价版特斯拉的公司。

Fisker is an EV startup that's leveraging a platform-sharing business model. The company outsources all build components (except for design and software) to bring a high-performance electric vehicle to market at industry-low prices.

Fisker是一家电动汽车初创公司,正在利用平台共享商业模式。该公司外包所有制造组件(设计和软件除外),以行业最低的价格将高性能电动汽车推向市场。

We love that strategy. We live in a world of hot inflation, high gas prices, and high interest rates. Indeed, in that world, expensive electric vehicles don't sell as well as cheap ones do. And Fisker appears to be making the best cheap EV in the market.

我们喜欢这个策略。我们生活在一个高通胀、高油价和高利率的世界。事实上,在那个世界里,昂贵的电动汽车并不像廉价的那样畅销。菲斯克似乎正在制造市场上最便宜的电动汽车。

That EV is Fisker's Ocean SUV, which launches in November.

这款电动汽车就是菲斯克的海洋SUV,将于11月推出。

It starts at $37,500, which is an absolutely unheard-of price for an eSUV model. It also features 250 to 350 miles of driving range with a unique design, a new brand, and a great software package.

它的起价为37,500美元,对于一款电动SUV来说,这是一个绝对闻所未闻的价格。它还拥有250至350英里的行驶里程,具有独特的设计、新的品牌和强大的软件包。

Economically speaking, the Ocean SUV gives consumers the most bang for their buck in the EV market. Unsurprisingly, reservations for this car already sit at an impressive 31,000 orders. And that number is growing by roughly 3,000 new orders per month. That's impressive momentum heading into the car's November launch. And it easily puts Fisker on track to hit its ~50,000-unit delivery target for 2023.

从经济上讲,海洋SUV在电动汽车市场给消费者带来了最大的回报。不出所料,这款车的预订量已经达到了令人印象深刻的3.1万辆。这一数字正在以每月约3000份新订单的速度增长。这是令人印象深刻的势头,进入11月份的汽车发布。这很容易使菲斯克走上正轨,实现2023年约5万台的交付目标。

We fully expect the Fisker Ocean SUV to be one of the best-selling electric cars in 2023.

我们完全预计菲斯克海洋SUV将成为2023年最畅销的电动汽车之一。

More importantly, though, Fisker is about much more than just the Ocean SUV.

然而,更重要的是,菲斯克不仅仅是海洋SUV。

The Ocean SUV projects to be such a "big hit" because of its ability to optimally blend quality with affordability. This is a byproduct of competitive advantages Fisker has created through its platform-sharing model.

海洋SUV预计将会如此“大获成功”,因为它能够将质量与价格完美结合。这是菲斯克通过其平台共享模式创造的竞争优势的副产品。

To that end, we don't see Fisker as a one-hit wonder with the Ocean SUV. We believe the company's business model enables it to repeatedly launch popular EVs at the intersection of quality and affordability.

为此,我们不认为菲斯克是海洋SUV的一举成名的奇迹。我们相信,该公司的商业模式使其能够在质量和价格之间反复推出受欢迎的电动汽车.

Management is targeting ~225,000 deliveries of four different EV models by 2025, with an average sales price of over $50,000. We think that's entirely doable. If so, Fisker will net revenues of about $11 billion by 2025. We believe Fisker can achieve similar operating margins to Tesla, about 20%, which would put net profits at just shy of $2 billion (assuming a 20% tax rate).

管理层的目标是到2025年交付约22.5万辆四种不同的电动汽车车型,平均售价超过50,000美元。我们认为这是完全可行的。如果是这样的话,到2025年,菲斯克的净收入将达到约110亿美元。我们相信菲斯克可以实现与特斯拉类似的运营利润率,约为20%,这将使净利润略低于20亿美元(假设税率为20%)。

A 20X multiple on that implies a potential future valuation here of $40 billion. And the company is worth just $2.5 billion today.

20倍的市盈率意味着该公司未来的潜在估值为400亿美元。如今,这家公司的市值仅为25亿美元。

That's tremendous upside. And the risks are offset by a $1.2 billion cash pile on the balance sheet that should more than absorb all cash burn next year (projected at $750 million) and bridge the gap to profitability in late 2023.

这是一个巨大的上行空间。这些风险被资产负债表上12亿美元的现金储备所抵消,这些现金储备应该会超过明年的所有现金消耗(预计为7.5亿美元),并在2023年末弥合这一差距,实现盈利。

It's clear to see why FSR is one of our favorite EV stocks to buy right now.

很明显,为什么FSR是我们现在最喜欢购买的电动汽车股票之一.

The Final Word on the Best EV Stocks

关于最好的电动汽车股票的最终决定

Tesla's first-mover advantage in the big electric vehicle space is over.

特斯拉在大型电动汽车领域的先发优势已经结束。

Once upon a time, the only "cool" high-performance EV you could buy was one of its cars. That's no longer true today. You have the Lucid Air, the Rivian R1T and R1S, and the Fisker Ocean, just to name a few.

曾几何时,你能买到的唯一一辆“酷”的高性能电动车就是它的一辆车。如今,这一点已不再正确。你有晴朗空气,Rivian R1T和R1S,以及菲斯克海洋,仅举几个例子。

That's why Tesla's global EV market share has eroded six points over the past two years. And that's before Lucid, Rivian, and Fisker – its three biggest competitors – have hit mass production.

这就是为什么特斯拉的全球电动汽车市场份额在过去两年里侵蚀了6个百分点。这是在Lucid、Rivian和菲斯克--它最大的三个竞争对手--投入批量生产之前。

Once they do so between 2023 and 2025, Tesla's global EV market share will dwindle below 10%. And other EV stocks will have the opportunity to soar as they gobble up Tesla's market share.

一旦他们在2023年至2025年期间做到这一点,特斯拉的全球电动汽车市场份额将下降到10%以下。其他电动汽车股票将有机会飙升,因为它们吞噬了特斯拉的市场份额。

Lucid, Rivian, and Fisker are three such EV stocks.

Lucid、Rivian和菲斯克就是这样的三只电动汽车股票。

But they aren't even the best one to buy for Tesla's fall from grace.

他们甚至都不是最值得买的因为特斯拉失宠了。

In fact, just a few weeks ago, I put together an entire presentation on the one that is the best EV stock to buy right now.

事实上,就在几周前,我整理了一份完整的演示文稿目前最值得购买的电动汽车股票。

Like the three we discussed today, this is the one EV stock you don't want left out of your portfolio as we head into 2023.

就像我们今天讨论的三只股票一样,这是一只你不希望在进入2023年时被排除在你的投资组合之外的电动汽车股票。

On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

截至发稿之日,卢克·兰戈并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。

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取代特斯拉成为行业之王的后电动汽车股票首次出现在InvestorPlace上。

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