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70211746 保密 ID: 70211746
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    $理想汽车(LI.US)$ My source told me that Li auto has halted their production because the goodyear factory in shanghai could not provide the tires to Li. The goodyear factory local authority has frozen their community without letting any truck go in and out. This cause a significant problem at Li's assembling line. They are losing 30 Million USD a day on sales side, the cash follow will be even worse since the final assembling factory still need to pay their factory workers and suppliers. Thi...
    $阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$
    Based on Chinese law, the maximum fine they can put on a company is 10% the prior year's sales.  which means one time fine of maximum 50 Bil out of the company pocket.  In reality, It is very unlikely BABA will be fined more than 1% of the sales total since this has never happened in China corporate history.  Sounds like the goverment is into a mission to show who is the boss to Jack Ma.  It  is quite possible some major partners /shareholders will have to give up the corporate control rights rather than actually big monetary fine.    This "investigation" led consequence in market has been brown way over the cloud.
    ...
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    $Zoom视频通讯(ZM.US)$
    看来我们看到了407美元的阻力线。股票将在这里浮动一段时间。等到下一份收益报告,将股票提升到一个新的水平。第二轮锁定让很多用户产生了付费心情,而不是免费获得ZM服务。如果没有大行情,有机增长应使该股的市场估值达到370-380。
    已翻译
    $美国航空(AAL.US)$
    刚刚过去的国会法案对航空股是一个大的利好。 不过这个消息已经基本在股价中反应出来了。 一般来说, 利好的地方是可以阻止进一步的下跌。
    航空股里我还是看好小公司, 比如HAL和JBUL, 从balancesheet的角度而言, 得利最大得是 Alaska airline and HAL
    I am more interested in Alaska Airline and Hawiee Airline,  the smaller ones are normally benefited most from subsisdize on balance sheet. Meanwhile, these 2 has better seat ratio for current market since both states has less covid-19 case and attract to travelers. At the point of recover, they will be best to pick up customers. further more they are good for take over by PE or larger airlines
    ...
    $KNOT Offshore(KNOP.US)$
    这是一只奇怪的房地产投资信托基金股票,它年复一年地提供股息(目前为每年14%),同时股权持续增长。猜猜它被算作天然气库存,但实际上它是一家运输和储存天然气的运输公司。大多数海洋油轮在下半年赚了很多钱,这艘也应该赚了很多钱。但是他们提供财务报告的速度较慢,因此赶上运输公司的重启步伐缓慢。分红率的正常范围约为6-8%。根据这一假设和明年的收入估计,明年应该至少是当前价格的两倍。
    ...
    已翻译
    $西方石油(OXY.US)$
    Meanwhile, seeing other stocks going up on Xmas rally.  The lost time value is what one needs to think about
    $西方石油(OXY.US)$
    Given the market sentiment change, One must ask how much lower can OXY has to go to reach market floor.  Since there is no earning for OXY, then the only approximate factor one can consider is P/S.
    OXY has a P/S range of 0.41-0.72 with average of 0.57....... However currently market P/S is 0.95, it is way overbought. IMHO, given that sales will still decline in next year, the P/S should be somewhere around 0.7 or less.  This translate to a healthy market valuation of $15-16. Those who still hold on the stock will see stock going down further. This is not a market correction, it is a correction of single stock which has been hyped!...
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    $西方石油(OXY.US)$
    For those still believing kicking out of SP100 is only marginal, I have to say you are so naïve on market sentiment. The stock will be going to 16-17 at year end before it pull back to 20 level. Yes, it may reach to a new high at mid 20s sometime next year if all kind of demanding will lift the gas price. However the expectation is already priced into the stock and it was even hyped with overjoy.
    My suggestion will be sell now   before it went all the way to 16  Pick it up again sometime next year after market makes a correction!...
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