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Commodities Boom Hits Home

Commodities Boom Hits Home

大宗商品热潮击中要害
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/03/17 10:38

Prices are surging for the raw materials used to build American homes.

用于建造美国住宅的原材料价格正在飙升。

Lumber, one of the biggest costs in home-building after land and labor, has never been more expensive and is more than twice the typical price for this time of year. Crude oil, a starting point for paint, drain pipe, roof shingles and flooring, has shot up more than 80% since October. Copper, which carries water and electricity throughout houses, costs about a third more than it did in the autumn.

木材是房屋建设中仅次于土地和劳动力的最大成本之一,从未像现在这样昂贵,是一年中这个时候典型价格的两倍多。原油是油漆、排水管、屋顶瓦片和地板的起点,自去年10月以来已经飙升了80%以上。铜的价格比秋季的价格高出约三分之一。铜可以把水和电输送到各家各处。

Prices for granite, insulation, concrete blocks and common brick have all pushed to records in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's producer-price index, which measures the change in prices that producers receive for their output. Drywall and ceramic tiles are short of records but have also climbed.

根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau Of Labor Statistics)的生产者价格指数(PPI),花岗岩、绝缘材料、混凝土砖和普通砖的价格都在2021年创下历史新高。生产者价格指数衡量的是生产者从产品中获得的价格变化。石膏板和瓷砖虽然没有记录,但也有所攀升。

Materials producers like paintmaker Sherwin-Williams Co. and flooring manufacturer Mohawk Industries Inc. as well as builders D.R. Horton Inc. and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. have been raising prices to pass along higher costs. They can thank historically low borrowing costs, federal stimulus payments and a hunt for yield that has sent investors barreling into the home-rental business.

油漆制造商舍温-威廉姆斯公司(Sherwin-Williams Co.)、地板制造商莫霍克工业公司(Mohawk Industries Inc.)以及建筑商D.R.Horton Inc.和霍夫纳尼亚企业公司(Hovnanian Enterprise Inc.)等材料生产商一直在提高价格,以转嫁更高的成本。他们可以感谢历史上较低的借贷成本,联邦刺激计划的支付,以及对收益的追逐,这促使投资者蜂拥进入房屋租赁业务。

"Whoever the home buyers are, they have been able to pay for it," said Todd Tomalak, who tracks building products for John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)跟踪建筑产品的托德·托马拉克(Todd Tomalak)说,“无论购房者是谁,他们都有能力支付。”

American Homes 4 Rent, which built more than 1,600 rentals last year and plans to construct another 2,000 houses this year, said its lumber bill is between $20,000 and $25,000 per house, up from about $10,000.

美国房屋4租赁公司(American Homes 4 Rent)去年建造了1600多套出租房屋,并计划今年再建造2000套房屋。该公司表示,每套房屋的木材账单从大约1万美元上涨到2万美元到2.5万美元之间。

"Fortunately, we've been in a rental-rate growing environment, and that has kept us yield neutral," said Jack Corrigan, the company's chief investment officer.

该公司首席投资官杰克·科里根(Jack Corrigan)表示:“幸运的是,我们一直处于租金增长的环境中,这让我们的收益率保持中性。”

Investors are watching all corners of the economy for signs of stimulus driving a pickup in inflation. They are finding it in housing, where rising input prices are translating into higher costs for consumer goods.

投资者正在关注经济的各个角落,寻找刺激措施推动通胀回升的迹象。他们在住房领域发现了这一点,不断上涨的投入价格正在转化为消费品成本的上升。

Federal Reserve policy makers say they haven't seen enough of a jump in the price of goods and services to alter their course of holding interest rates near zero and pumping cash into the economy, which remains in recession and plagued by unemployment.

美联储(Federal Reserve)政策制定者说,他们还没有看到商品和服务价格出现足够的跃升,无法改变他们将利率维持在接近零的水平,并向经济注入大量现金的做法。美国经济仍处于衰退之中,并受到失业的困扰。

Rock-bottom mortgage rates have made owning a house more affordable, while the Fed's purchasing of mortgage-backed securities has spurred lending. Lower household spending during the lockdown and federal stimulus checks have helped people accumulate down payments. House hunters are bidding up properties alongside legions of investors who are buying and building a growing share of America's houses and renting them out.

最低的抵押贷款利率使人们更容易买得起房子,而美联储购买抵押贷款支持证券刺激了放贷。封锁期间较低的家庭支出和联邦刺激计划帮助人们积累了首付。找房子的人和成群结队的投资者一起竞标房产,这些投资者正在购买和建造越来越多的美国房屋,并将其出租。

The competition for houses has lifted home prices in almost every part of the country, enabling those who already owned to use their homes as cash machines. Americans pocketed $152.7 billion from cash-out refinancings last year and went on a remodeling bender.

对住房的竞争几乎推高了全国各地的房价,使那些已经拥有住房的人能够将自己的房子用作提款机。美国人去年从套现再融资中获利1527亿美元,并进行了一场改头换面的狂欢。

Building supply chains weren't prepared when Americans began swarming model homes and Home Depots in April. Sawmills and factories shut down like most other workplaces early in the lockdown. Oil wells were shut in, and refineries idled. A spate of hurricanes knocked out Gulf Coast facilities that produce polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, raising prices to records for the material used for waste pipes and siding, according to ICIS, which tracks chemical commodities.

当美国人在4月份开始涌入样板房和家得宝时,供应链的建立还没有准备好。锯木厂和工厂和大多数其他工作场所一样,在封锁初期关闭。油井关闭,炼油厂闲置。据追踪化学大宗商品的ICIS称,一连串的飓风摧毁了墨西哥湾沿岸生产聚氯乙烯(PVC)的设施,将用于废旧管道和壁板的材料的价格推高至创纪录水平。

Suppliers never caught up. Now building permits for residential construction are being issued at their highest rate since 2006. And the latest round of stimulus checks are landing in bank accounts just in time for spring, when Americans tend to house hunt and start remodeling projects.

供应商从未迎头赶上。现在,用于住宅建设的建筑许可证正在以2006年以来的最高速度发放。最新一轮刺激计划正好在春季到来之际落地银行账户,届时美国人往往会找房并开始改建项目。

CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd., which distributes building supplies in Canada and the western U.S., has enough orders for rot-resistant wood to keep its lumber-treating facilities running at capacity through 2021.

在加拿大和美国西部分销建筑用品的CanWel建筑材料集团有限公司(CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd.)有足够的耐腐烂木材订单,足以让其木材处理设施保持满负荷运转到2021年。

"We're sold out. We can't take on any more business this year," Chief Executive Amar Doman told investors last week. "Everything that we're producing is sold, and it's out the door."

首席执行官阿马尔·多曼(Amar Doman)上周对投资者表示:“我们的门票都卖完了。今年我们不能再接任何业务了。”“我们生产的所有东西都卖了,而且都卖出去了。”

Lumber and other wood products took off last summer and have remained aloft. Futures for delivery this month ran up to $1,040 per thousand board feet, nearly triple the typical price this time of year. The story is similar for oriented strand board, used for walls, floors and roofs. Many engineered wood products are in short supply and hard to find.

木材和其他木制品去年夏天开始起飞,并一直保持在高处。本月交割的期货价格高达每千板英尺1040美元,几乎是每年这个时候典型价格的三倍。用于墙壁、地板和屋顶的定向刨花板的情况类似。许多工程木制品供不应求,很难找到。

The National Association of Home Builders says that rising lumber prices have added $24,000 to the cost of building the average single-family home and about $9,000 per apartment. The lobbying group last week asked Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to seek immediate remedies to boost production.

全美住宅建筑商协会(National Association Of Home Builders)表示,不断上涨的木材价格使普通独栋住宅的建造成本增加了2.4万美元,每套公寓的建造成本增加了约9000美元。该游说团体上周要求商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多(Gina Raimondo)寻求立即补救措施,以提高产量。

"Current prices represent an intolerable and frequently insurmountable financial burden to home builders and contractors," the group said.

该组织表示:“目前的价格对房屋建筑商和承包商来说是无法忍受的,而且往往是无法逾越的财务负担。”

Executives with D.R. Horton, the country's largest home builder, said they are paying more for lumber as well as shingles and facing short supplies of windows and appliances.

美国最大的房屋建筑商D.R.Horton的高管说,他们正在为木材和瓦片支付更高的价格,并面临窗户和家电供应短缺的问题。

"We are increasing our prices in general, but we balance our moves in prices relative to affordability and what we think our buyers can actually afford in terms of the monthly payments," finance chief Bill Wheat said.

“我们总体上提高了价格,但我们权衡了价格相对于可负担性的变动,以及我们认为买家在每月还款方面的实际承受能力,”首席财务官比尔·麦子(Bill Mcand)表示。

Builders boosted prices for nearly three quarters of all floor plans offered during January, according to RBC Capital Markets, compared with 54% of models that became more expensive in December.

根据加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的数据,在1月份提供的所有平面图中,有近四分之三是建筑商提高了价格,相比之下,12月份变得更加昂贵的型号中,这一比例为54%。

Some builders are finding limits to what customers will pay. In Raleigh, N.C., Brant Chesson, CEO of Homes by Dickerson, said that last month he lost six customers in one day after he raised prices to cover higher lumber bills.

一些建筑商正在寻找客户愿意支付的上限。在北卡罗来纳州的罗利,Homes by Dickerson的首席执行官布兰特·切森(Brant Chesson)说,上个月,在他提高价格以弥补木材账单上涨后,他在一天内失去了六名客户。

"Even though there still is a great sales pace, we lose customers every day," he said.

“尽管销售速度仍然很快,但我们每天都在流失客户,”他说。

At Burke Brothers Hardware nearby, owner Jeff Hastings is balancing rising costs with keeping customers. He is stocking up on copper wire before prices go any higher and sacrificing his own profit on lumber sales to attract customers who will add higher-margin items, like fasteners and tools, to their tickets.

在附近的伯克兄弟(Burke Brothers)五金店,老板杰夫·黑斯廷斯(Jeff Hastings)正在平衡不断上升的成本和留住他在价格进一步上涨之前囤积铜线,并牺牲自己在木材销售上的利润,以吸引那些会在门票上添加紧固件和工具等利润率更高的项目的客户。

"We're not going to gouge people this year just to make a profit," he said.

他说:“我们今年不会仅仅为了盈利而敲诈人。”

Dow Jones Newswires

道琼斯通讯社

By Ryan Dezember and Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

作者:Ryan Dezember和Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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