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These 4 Measures Indicate That Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Is Using Debt Safely

These 4 Measures Indicate That Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Is Using Debt Safely

这4项措施表明农夫山泉(HKG: 9633)正在安全地使用债务
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 02:48

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (HKG:9633) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到,农夫山泉有限公司(HKG: 9633)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

当企业无法轻易履行这些义务时,无论是通过自由现金流还是以诱人的价格筹集资金,债务和其他负债就会面临风险。资本主义的重要部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股权资本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,债务可能是企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们考虑公司对债务的使用时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务。

What Is Nongfu Spring's Debt?

什么是农夫山泉的债务?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Nongfu Spring had CN¥3.12b of debt, an increase on CN¥2.43b, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥24.2b in cash, so it actually has CN¥21.1b net cash.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2023年12月,农夫山泉在一年内有31.2亿元人民币的债务,比24.3亿元人民币有所增加。但是,其资产负债表显示其持有242亿元人民币的现金,因此实际上拥有211亿元人民币的净现金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:9633 Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024
SEHK: 9633 2024 年 5 月 21 日债务与股本比率的历史记录

How Healthy Is Nongfu Spring's Balance Sheet?

农夫山泉的资产负债表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Nongfu Spring had liabilities of CN¥19.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥689.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥24.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥670.9m due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥4.34b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,农夫山泉的负债为199亿元人民币,12个月内到期,负债为6.897亿元人民币。除了这些债务外,它还有242亿元人民币的现金以及价值6.709亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有434亿元人民币 更多 流动资产超过总负债。

This state of affairs indicates that Nongfu Spring's balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥486.5b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet. Simply put, the fact that Nongfu Spring has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

这种状况表明,农夫山泉的资产负债表看起来相当稳健,因为其总负债几乎等于其流动资产。因此,尽管很难想象这家4865亿元人民币的公司正在为现金而苦苦挣扎,但我们仍然认为值得监控其资产负债表。简而言之,农夫山泉的现金多于债务这一事实可以说是一个很好的迹象,表明它可以安全地管理债务。

On top of that, Nongfu Spring grew its EBIT by 48% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nongfu Spring can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

最重要的是,农夫山泉在过去十二个月中将其息税前利润增长了48%,这种增长将使其更容易处理债务。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定农夫山泉能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Nongfu Spring may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Nongfu Spring recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 91% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法减少债务。农夫山泉资产负债表上可能有净现金,但研究该企业将其利息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的效果仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其对债务的需求和管理能力。在过去的三年中,农夫山泉录得的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的91%,比我们通常预期的要强。这使其在偿还债务方面处于非常有利的地位。

Summing Up

总结

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Nongfu Spring has CN¥21.1b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 91% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥13b. So is Nongfu Spring's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. Another factor that would give us confidence in Nongfu Spring would be if insiders have been buying shares: if you're conscious of that signal too, you can find out instantly by clicking this link.

尽管调查公司的债务始终是明智之举,但在这种情况下,农夫山泉的净现金为211亿元人民币,资产负债表看起来不错。最重要的是,它将息税前利润的91%转换为自由现金流,带来了130亿元人民币的收入。那么农夫山泉的债务有风险吗?在我们看来,情况并非如此。另一个让我们对农夫山泉充满信心的因素是内部人士是否一直在买入股票:如果你也意识到这个信号,你可以通过点击这个链接立即找到答案。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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