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We Think Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我们认为皮博迪能源(纽约证券交易所代码:BTU)可以继续偿还债务
Simply Wall St ·  05/05 09:26

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。我们可以看到,皮博迪能源公司(纽约证券交易所代码:BTU)确实在其业务中使用了债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但如果企业无法还清贷款人,那么债务就任由他们摆布。归根结底,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所有地离开。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人强迫他们以不利的价格筹集资金。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它取代了对一家能够以高回报率进行再投资的公司的摊薄时。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务。

What Is Peabody Energy's Net Debt?

皮博迪能源的净负债是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Peabody Energy had US$323.3m of debt, an increase on US$310.6m, over one year. But on the other hand it also has US$855.7m in cash, leading to a US$532.4m net cash position.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2024年3月,皮博迪能源在一年内有3.233亿美元的债务,比3.106亿美元有所增加。但另一方面,它也有8.557亿美元的现金,净现金状况为5.324亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:BTU Debt to Equity History May 5th 2024
纽约证券交易所:BTU 债务与股本比率历史记录 2024 年 5 月 5 日

How Strong Is Peabody Energy's Balance Sheet?

皮博迪能源的资产负债表有多强?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Peabody Energy had liabilities of US$805.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.40b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$855.7m and US$343.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$1.00b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,皮博迪能源在12个月内到期的负债为8.05亿美元,之后到期的负债为14.0亿美元。另一方面,它有8.557亿美元的现金和价值3.431亿美元的应收账款将在一年内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出10亿美元。

Peabody Energy has a market capitalization of US$2.81b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Peabody Energy boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

皮博迪能源的市值为28.1亿美元,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但是,我们绝对希望留意其债务带来过大风险的迹象。尽管负债值得关注,但皮博迪能源拥有净现金,因此可以公平地说,它没有沉重的债务负担!

In fact Peabody Energy's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 58% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Peabody Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

实际上,皮博迪能源的储蓄之处在于其低债务水平,因为其息税前利润在过去十二个月中下降了58%。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终也可能使即使是微不足道的债务也相当危险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,未来的收益将决定皮博迪能源未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Peabody Energy has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Peabody Energy produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 67% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

但是我们最终的考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。尽管皮博迪能源的资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得一看其将利息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其建立(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度有多快。在过去的三年中,皮博迪能源产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其息税前利润的67%,与我们的预期差不多。这种冷硬现金意味着它可以在需要的时候减少债务。

Summing Up

总结

Although Peabody Energy's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$532.4m. The cherry on top was that in converted 67% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$414m. So we don't have any problem with Peabody Energy's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Peabody Energy (including 1 which is significant) .

尽管由于负债总额,皮博迪能源的资产负债表并不是特别强劲,但其净现金为5.324亿美元,显然是乐观的。最重要的是,它将息税前利润的67%转换为自由现金流,带来了4.14亿美元的收入。因此,我们对皮博迪能源使用债务没有任何问题。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。为此,你应该了解我们在Peabody Energy身上发现的3个警告信号(包括一个重要的警告信号)。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

当一切都说完之后,有时更容易将注意力集中在甚至不需要债务的公司上。读者现在可以100%免费访问净负债为零的成长型股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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