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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alpha Group (SZSE:002292)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alpha Group (SZSE:002292)

计算 Alpha Group 的内在价值 (SZSE: 002292)
Simply Wall St ·  04/28 22:26

Key Insights

关键见解

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Alpha Group fair value estimate is CN¥7.27
  • Alpha Group's CN¥6.57 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • The average premium for Alpha Group's competitorsis currently 1,072%
  • 使用两阶段自由现金流股本计算,阿尔法集团的公允价值估计为7.27元人民币
  • 阿尔法集团6.57元人民币的股价表明其交易价格与其公允价值估计相似
  • 目前,阿尔法集团竞争对手的平均溢价为1,072%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Alpha Group (SZSE:002292) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

在本文中,我们将通过计算预期的未来现金流并将其折现为今天的价值来估算阿尔法集团(SZSE:002292)的内在价值。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。像这样的模型可能看起来超出外行人的理解,但它们很容易理解。

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。如果您想了解有关折扣现金流的更多信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中详细了解此计算背后的理由。

What's The Estimated Valuation?

估计估值是多少?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

差价合约就是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的概念,因此,这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥340.4m CN¥440.2m CN¥534.3m CN¥619.1m CN¥693.2m CN¥757.5m CN¥813.3m CN¥862.4m CN¥906.5m CN¥946.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 40.59% Est @ 29.30% Est @ 21.39% Est @ 15.86% Est @ 11.98% Est @ 9.27% Est @ 7.37% Est @ 6.04% Est @ 5.11% Est @ 4.46%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.1% CN¥312 CN¥370 CN¥412 CN¥437 CN¥449 CN¥449 CN¥442 CN¥430 CN¥414 CN¥397
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) 3.404 亿人民币 440.2万元人民币 5.343 亿元人民币 6.19亿元人民币 693.2万元人民币 757.5 万元人民币 8.133 亿人民币 8.624 亿元人民币 906.5 万元人民币 9.469 亿元人民币
增长率估算来源 美国东部标准时间 @ 40.59% 美国东部时间 @ 29.30% 美国东部标准时间 @ 21.39% 估计 @ 15.86% 美国东部标准时间 @ 11.98% 美国东部标准时间 @ 9.27% Est @ 7.37% 美国东部标准时间 @ 6.04% 估计 @ 5.11% Est @ 4.46%
现值(人民币,百万)折现 @ 9.1% CN¥312 CN¥370 CN¥412 CN¥437 449 元人民币 449 元人民币 CN¥442 CN¥430 CN¥414 CN¥397

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥4.1b

(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 41亿元人民币

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.1%.

我们现在需要计算终值,该值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年 “增长” 期一样,我们使用9.1%的权益成本将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥947m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.1%– 2.9%) = CN¥16b

终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 9.47亿元人民币× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.1% — 2.9%) = 160亿元人民币

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥16b÷ ( 1 + 9.1%)10= CN¥6.6b

终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= CN¥16B÷ (1 + 9.1%)10= 6.6b CN¥

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥11b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥6.6, the company appears about fair value at a 9.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为110亿元人民币。为了得出每股内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。与目前6.6元人民币的股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了9.7%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。

dcf
SZSE:002292 Discounted Cash Flow April 29th 2024
SZSE: 002292 贴现现金流 2024 年 4 月 29 日

The Assumptions

假设

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alpha Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.092. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我们要指出的是,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际的现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将阿尔法集团视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了9.1%,这是基于1.092的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。

Moving On:

继续前进:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Alpha Group, there are three further elements you should further research:

尽管公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你仔细检查公司的唯一分析内容。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。对于 Alpha Group 来说,您还需要进一步研究三个要素:

  1. Financial Health: Does 002292 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 002292's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 财务状况:002292 的资产负债表是否良好?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
  2. 未来收益:002292的增长率与同行和整个市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对深交所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想查找其他股票的计算结果,请在此处搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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