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Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' (HKG:3737) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations

Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' (HKG:3737) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations

中智药业控股(HKG: 3737)盈利前景可能取决于软基础
Simply Wall St ·  04/26 20:08

Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited's (HKG:3737) stock hasn't moved much. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.

尽管公布了一些强劲的收益,但中智药业控股有限公司(HKG: 3737)股票的市场并没有太大变化。我们进行了一些挖掘,在细节中发现了一些相关的因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SEHK:3737 Earnings and Revenue History April 27th 2024
SEHK: 3737 2024 年 4 月 27 日的收益和收入记录

Examining Cashflow Against Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' Earnings

根据中智药业控股的收益研究现金流

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

正如金融迷已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的关键指标。简而言之,该比率从净利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该时期公司的平均运营资产。你可以将现金流的应计比率视为 “非FCF利润率”。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

因此,当公司的应计比率为负时,这实际上被认为是一件好事,但如果其应计比率为正,则是一件坏事。虽然应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们确实认为,当公司的应计比率相对较高时,值得注意。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,总的来说,高应计率对短期利润来说是个坏兆头。

For the year to December 2023, Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.30. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥162.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥70m in the last year. We saw that FCF was CN¥195m a year ago though, so Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. The good news for shareholders is that Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

在截至2023年12月的一年中,中智药业控股的应计比率为0.30。因此,我们知道它的自由现金流大大低于其法定利润,这引发了人们对该利润数字到底有多有用的质疑。尽管该公司公布了1.628亿元的利润,但从自由现金流来看,它实际上在去年消耗了7000万元人民币。但是,我们看到一年前的FCF为1.95亿元人民币,因此中智药业控股过去至少能够产生正的FCF。对股东来说,好消息是,中智药业控股去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕数据可能只是利润与FCF之间短期不匹配的例子。如果确实如此,股东应寻求在本年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings.

注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对中智药业控股的资产负债表分析。

Our Take On Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' Profit Performance

我们对中智药业控股盈利表现的看法

Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Because of this, we think that it may be that Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 15% over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

去年,中智药业控股没有将其大部分利润转换为自由现金流,一些投资者可能认为这种情况相当不理想。因此,我们认为可能是中智药业控股的法定利润要好于其基础盈利能力。尽管如此,仍然值得注意的是,其每股收益在过去三年中增长了15%。归根结底,如果你想正确地了解公司,必须考虑的不仅仅是上述因素。如果您想进一步了解中智药业控股作为一家企业,请务必了解其面临的任何风险。每家公司都有风险,我们发现了中智药业控股的两个警告信号(其中一个可能很严重!)你应该知道。

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

今天,我们放大了单一数据点,以更好地了解中智药业控股利润的性质。但是,如果你能够将注意力集中在细节上,总会有更多的事情需要发现。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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