Fed's Key Inflation Indicator Hits 2.8%, Dashes Rate Cut Hopes; Traders On Alert
Fed's Key Inflation Indicator Hits 2.8%, Dashes Rate Cut Hopes; Traders On Alert
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index – rose more than expected in March, confirming concerning signs of a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the first quarter of the year.
美联储首选的通货膨胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——在3月份的涨幅超过预期，这证实了今年第一季度通货膨胀压力再起的令人担忧的迹象。
The higher-than-expected PCE report serves as a stark reality check for traders, further postponing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut that had already been dwindling in recent weeks.
高于预期的个人消费支出报告对交易者来说是一次严峻的现实检查，进一步推迟了最近几周对美联储降息的预期。
March PCE Report: Key Highlights
三月份PCE报告：主要亮点
- The headline PCE price index rose from 2.5% in February 2024 to 2.7% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts of a 2.6% increase, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.
- On a monthly basis, the headline PCE accelerated by 0.3%, unchanged from the 0.3% recorded in February, and matching expectations.
- When excluding energy and food expenses, the core PCE price index held steady at 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing predictions of a decline to 2.6%.
- On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE advanced at a 0.3% pace, unchanged from both the previous and expected 0.3%.
- 经济分析局周五报告称，总体个人消费支出价格指数从2024年2月的2.5％上涨至3月份的2.7％，超过了预期的2.6％的涨幅。
- 按月计算，总体个人消费支出增长了0.3％，与2月份的0.3％持平，符合预期。
- 不包括能源和食品支出，核心个人消费支出价格指数同比稳定在2.8％，超过了下降至2.6％的预期。
- 按月计算，核心个人消费支出以0.3％的速度增长，与之前和预期的0.3％持平。
| Indicator | February 2024 |
March 2024 |
March (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE YoY | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Headline PCE MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core PCE YoY (excl. energy & food) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Core PCE MoM (excl. energy & food) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 指示器 | 二月 2024 |
三月 2024 |
三月 （预期） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 总体个人消费支出同比 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| PCE 月度头条 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 核心个人消费支出同比（不包括能源和食品） | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 核心个人消费支出月率（不包括能源和食品） | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Market Reactions
市场反应
Market-implied probabilities indicated a 60% chance of a rate cut by September 2024, and priced in cumulatively 35 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, implying just one rate cut.
市场隐含的概率表明，到2024年9月降息的可能性为60％，到年底累计降息35个基点，这意味着只有一次降息。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), inched higher minutes after the PCE release.
景顺数据库美元指数看涨基金ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：UUP）追踪的美元指数（DXY）在PCE发布几分钟后小幅上涨。
Futures on major U.S. averages rallied during Friday's pre-market trading following upbeat quarterly results from Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT), which offset Thursday's negative sentiment stemming from Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)'s weaker-than-expected guidance.
在Alphabet Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和微软公司（纽约证券交易所代码：MSFT）公布乐观的季度业绩之后，美国主要股指期货在周五的盘前交易中上涨，这抵消了周四因Meta Platforms Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的指引低于预期而产生的负面情绪。
However, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge pushing any rate cut talks further into the future, traders may potentially brace for macro-related volatility in the last session of the week.
但是，随着美联储首选的通胀指标将任何降息谈判推向未来，交易者可能会为本周最后一个交易日的宏观相关波动做好准备。
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