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50%分水岭后: 燃油车=诺基亚,新能源车=iphone?

After the 50% watershed: fuel vehicles = Nokia, new energy vehicles = iPhone?

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 20 03:54

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has surpassed 50% for the first time.

Just as smartphones replace functional devices, new energy vehicles now replace traditional fuel vehicles, and this transformation, which has not occurred in 100 years, has achieved phased victory.

According to the latest data released by the Passenger Transport Federation, the passenger car market retailed 516,000 units from April 1 to 14, 2024, down 11% from the previous year; the NEV market retailed 260,000 vehicles, up 32% year on year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles surpassed 50% for the first time, reaching 50.39%. Behind the penetration rate of over 50%, China's new energy vehicles are developing at an alarming rate.

Looking back at four years ago, China set a target for NEV penetration of over 50% by 2035. The penetration rate of the NEV market in China was only 5.8%. Now, in just 4 years, China's NEV industry has completed its 15-year journey, and NEVs have become an irreversible “hard trend.”

China's new energy vehicles have entered a stage of accelerated large-scale development, and the next ten years will still be a “golden age” for new energy vehicles. Roland Berger predicts that by 2030, new energy vehicles will account for more than 70% of the overall Chinese car market.

On the one hand, the PK for fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles in terms of product strength has completely declined. There are more and more reviews like “If you have driven a new energy vehicle, you don't want to drive a fuel vehicle”. The reason is that new energy vehicles completely surpass traditional fuel vehicles in terms of power, quietness, and intelligence, especially plug-in hybrids, integrating the functions of fuel, plug-in, range extension, and pure electric. In the eyes of users, car owners who also buy fuel vehicles are equivalent to buying Nokia feature phones back then in the era of smart phones!

On the other hand, the price advantage of fuel vehicles over new energy vehicles is also gradually being lost. For example, since this year, BYD has successively reduced the starting prices of the Qin PLUS DM-i and Song Pro DM-i to 79,800 yuan and 109,800 yuan respectively, giving fuel vehicles a head start. In addition to BYD, other NEV companies are also using “same price for oil and electricity” as the main selling point for new car launches, greatly increasing consumers' desire to buy and accelerating the disruption of the fuel vehicle market.

Sales data doesn't lie. Over the past period, sales of fuel vehicles have shown a sharp decline, and Japanese cars have even experienced a “Waterloo” in sales. According to the March joint venture fuel vehicle terminal sales data, sales of Toyota Camry, Corolla, and Volkswagen Lavida fell by 59.2%, 54.4%, and 36.4%, respectively, while sales of the former head joint venture model Honda Accord dropped by 72.6%.

Another meaning of the “decline” of fuel vehicles, especially joint fuel ventures, is that the development of China's NEV industry has gone from a period of cultivation to a period of maturity, forming a strong competitive advantage on a global scale.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first quarter of 2024, Chinese brand passenger cars achieved sales volume of 3.392 million units, an increase of 26.4% over the previous year, and the market share reached 59.6%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points over the previous year. The Zhitong Finance App noticed that in the first quarter, many Chinese car companies, such as BYD, Geely, Changan, Celis, and Ideal, ranked in the top ten NEV sales. Among them, BYD is at the top of the list with sales of 586,000 vehicles and a market share of 33.1%. In terms of NEV exports, China exported 1.73 million NEVs in 2023, an increase of 55% over 2022, making it one of the best-performing categories in the export market. In the first quarter of 2024, China exported 307,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 23.8% over the previous year.

As more and more consumers pay attention to the new mobile ecosystem innovations and experiences brought about by the electrification and intelligent collaborative development of automobiles, high-value-added automotive products and functions drive vehicles, power batteries, and intelligent driving technology to accelerate innovation and iteration, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to further increase. After all, after all, they have used iPhones, and not many people want to use Nokia again!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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