As you might know, Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002154) recently reported its full-year numbers. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CN¥5.3b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.48. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Baoxiniao Holding from six analysts is for revenues of CN¥5.99b in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 17% to CN¥0.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥6.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.57 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus price target rose 6.0% to CN¥8.24, with the analysts apparently satisfied with the business performance despite lower revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Baoxiniao Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥8.80 and the most bearish at CN¥7.67 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Baoxiniao Holding is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Baoxiniao Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Baoxiniao Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Baoxiniao Holding is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Baoxiniao Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Baoxiniao Holding that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.