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华创证券:3月挖机内销同比增长9.3% 乐观看待行业复苏向上

Huachuang Securities: Domestic sales of excavators increased 9.3% year-on-year in March, optimistic about the industry's recovery

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 9 04:46

According to the average service life of an excavator of 8 years, it is expected that the excavator will soon enter an upward cycle of renewal.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that domestic sales of excavators turned positive in March, and the decline in domestic sales of loaders narrowed and exports became positive. Although the domestic excavator industry is still under pressure, considering that the current downward cycle has shown an accelerated downward trend since August 2021, the domestic market is expected to stabilize with a relatively low base in the second half of the year. According to the average service life of an excavator of 8 years, it is expected that the excavator will soon enter an upward cycle of renewal. Even with year-on-year pressure in the first half of the year, considering the base figure and renewal demand, the whole year is expected to remain flat or grow slightly year-on-year.

Recommended: Sany Heavy Industries (600031.SH). It is recommended to focus on Liugong (000528.SZ), Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ), Zhonglian Heavy Industries (000157.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), etc.

The views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:

Domestic sales of excavators improved in March, and the decline in domestic sales of loaders narrowed and exports turned positive.

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major excavator manufacturers, 24,980 excavators of various types were sold in March 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and the monthly year-on-year decline narrowed sharply. Among them, there were 15,188 units in China, an increase of 9.27% over the previous year. With factors such as the resumption of work and production after the holiday season and improved construction conditions, downstream construction continued to improve, and domestic sales of excavators showed a recovery trend in March. The export was 9,792 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%, and the decline also narrowed markedly. In the first 3 months of 2024, a total of 4,9964 excavators were sold, down 13.1% year on year; 26,446 units were sold in China, down 8.26% year on year; 23,518 units were exported, down 17.9% year on year. In terms of loaders, 12324 loaders of various types were sold in March 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%. Its sales volume in the Chinese domestic market was 6,629 units, down 15.2% year on year; export sales volume was 5,695 units, up 8.13% year on year, achieving a correction. In the first 3 months of 2024, a total of 26,621 loaders of various types were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%. Its sales volume in the Chinese domestic market was 13,136 units, down 16.9% year on year; export sales volume was 13,485 units, up 0.07% year on year.

Demand for small-scale excavation has improved markedly, and construction starts have continued to improve.

According to today's construction machinery research data, 70.17% of agents expect the domestic excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in March, down 9.47 pcts from February. The small mining market in March is expected to continue the positive trend since the beginning of the year, and the share of the expected sharp decline has declined markedly; the share of the medium mining market is expected to improve somewhat compared to February, but the year-on-year forecast is slightly polarized; the share of agents that are expected to decline in sales has stabilized, and the number of agents with flat expectations has begun to increase. In terms of operating rate, after entering March, with the exception of the northwest and southwest regions, the operating rates in all other regions improved to varying degrees. The operating rate of most customer equipment was above 40% in early March, and it is expected to continue to recover as the temperature improves.

Exports increased 6.7% year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, and the United Arab Emirates and Mexico continued to increase.

According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, China's construction machinery exports in the first two months of 2024 were US$7.474 billion, up 6.7% year on year, continuing the growth trend. In terms of categories, export sales of pile drivers, crawler cranes, pavers, high-horsepower tractors, etc. grew at a high year-on-year rate, while exports of tunnel boring machines, concrete pumps, truck-mounted cranes, and stackers grew at a high rate. Looking at the subregions, Russia, the US, and Indonesia ranked in the top three export values with US$7.7, 5.8, and 340 million, respectively, but they all experienced year-on-year declines to varying degrees. Furthermore, exports to the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, and Mexico increased by 65.6%, 65.6%, and 45.2%, respectively, and the UAE and Mexico continued their high growth trend.

Investment advice: Although the domestic excavator industry is still under pressure, considering that the current downward cycle has shown an accelerated downward trend since August 2021, the domestic market is expected to stabilize with a relatively low base in the second half of the year. According to the average service life of an excavator of 8 years, it is expected that the excavator will soon enter an upward cycle of renewal. Even with year-on-year pressure in the first half of the year, considering the base figure and renewal demand, the whole year is expected to remain flat or grow slightly year-on-year.

Furthermore, cranes and concrete machinery have bottomed out in 2023, and 2024 is expected to be the first to enter the upward cycle. Since the beginning of 2023, the country has gradually introduced a number of policy combinations in real estate, infrastructure, and major projects. It is expected that with the gradual implementation of policies, downstream demand is expected to recover. In terms of exports, China's construction machinery exports have shown a rapid growth trend in recent years. Currently, there is still plenty of room for improvement in overseas markets, especially the high-end European and American markets. With the improvement of the comprehensive strength of domestic OEMs and the deepening of overseas layout, the overseas market is gradually becoming an important part.

Risk warning: domestic economic recovery is slowing down; market competition is intensifying; raw material prices fluctuate.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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