David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600021) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Shanghai Electric Power Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Shanghai Electric Power had CN¥101.9b of debt, an increase on CN¥86.8b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥9.54b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥92.4b.
How Healthy Is Shanghai Electric Power's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanghai Electric Power had liabilities of CN¥43.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥73.9b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥9.54b and CN¥23.0b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥85.2b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥24.4b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Shanghai Electric Power would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Shanghai Electric Power shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (9.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.7 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Another concern for investors might be that Shanghai Electric Power's EBIT fell 19% in the last year. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shanghai Electric Power can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Electric Power burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Shanghai Electric Power's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its EBIT growth rate fails to inspire much confidence. It looks to us like Shanghai Electric Power carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Shanghai Electric Power you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.