Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$11b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Ulta Beauty surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$26.03 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty

Following the latest results, Ulta Beauty's 29 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.8b in 2025. This would be an okay 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$26.78, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$26.79 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$582, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ulta Beauty analyst has a price target of US$690 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$387. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ulta Beauty's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Ulta Beauty's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 149 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Ulta Beauty's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ulta Beauty going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Ulta Beauty that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.