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El-Erian Says Market Justified In Worrying About Economic Growth If 2 To 3 Fed Rate Cuts Don't Happen This Year: 'Last Mile Getting To 2% Is Really, Really Difficult'

El-Erian Says Market Justified In Worrying About Economic Growth If 2 To 3 Fed Rate Cuts Don't Happen This Year: 'Last Mile Getting To 2% Is Really, Really Difficult'

埃里安说,如果美联储今年不降息2至3次,市场有理由担心经济增长:“达到2%的最后一英里确实非常困难”
Benzinga ·  03/07 02:12

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was cheered by the market on Wednesday for acknowledging the possibility of a Fed funds rate cut this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian shared his views on the near-term direction of interest rates.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三因承认美联储基金今年可能降息而受到市场的欢呼。经济学家穆罕默德·埃里安分享了他对近期利率走向的看法。

What Happened: El-Erian stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects the Fed to implement two to three rate cuts this year, maintaining his previous stance on rate expectations. "That would be appropriate," he said. "If we don't see any cuts, which is increasingly concerning to the market, then the market is justified in worrying about economic growth and earnings. However, we should expect two to three cuts."

发生了什么:埃里安在接受CNBC采访时表示,他预计美联储今年将实施两到三次降息,保持先前的利率预期立场。他说:“那是恰当的。”“如果我们看不到任何削减,这越来越令市场担忧,那么市场就有理由担心经济增长和收益。但是,我们应该预计会有两到三次削减。”

The economist also discussed whether the Fed should consider global economic conditions when setting interest rates or focus solely on domestic issues. He highlighted China's deflationary challenges and the risk of falling into the "middle-income trap."

这位经济学家还讨论了美联储在设定利率时是否应该考虑全球经济状况,还是只关注国内问题。他强调了中国面临的通货紧缩挑战和陷入 “中等收入陷阱” 的风险。

El-Erian suggested that China's deflationary situation could benefit the U.S. economy, given its imports from China.

埃里安表示,鉴于美国从中国的进口,中国的通货紧缩状况可能会使美国经济受益。

"But our reality is the reality of Europe, which is we no longer live in a world where there isn't enough demand. We live in a world where supply is no longer flexible enough, and that has to do with lots of things and it's not gonna go away," El-Erian said.

“但是我们的现实是欧洲的现实,那就是我们不再生活在一个需求不足的世界中。我们生活在一个供应不再足够灵活的世界中,这与很多事情有关,而且这种情况不会消失,” 埃里安说。

"Governments aren't doing enough to help the supply side and as a result of that....the last mile getting to 2% is really, really difficult and we're starting to get a sense of that from the data."

“政府在帮助供应方方面做得还不够,因此... 达到2%的最后一英里确实非常困难,我们开始从数据中了解到这一点。”

"We're going to see 2-3 cuts this year," says @elerianm. "If we don't get any cuts, which is increasingly what the market is worried about, then the market is correct to worry about economic growth and earnings." pic.twitter.com/CpxF1DPPFZ

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) March 6, 2024

@elerianm 说:“今年我们将看到2-3次裁员。”“如果我们得不到任何削减(这正是市场越来越担心的问题),那么市场担心经济增长和收益是正确的。” pic.twitter.com/cpxf1dppfz

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) 2024 年 3 月 6 日

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最佳通胀股票

Why It Matters: El-Erian's comments are significant as Powell has indicated a potential rate cut contingent on inflation reaching the 2% target.

为何重要:El-Erian的评论意义重大,因为鲍威尔表示可能降息,前提是通货膨胀率达到2%的目标。

JPMorgan's report from early February predicts inflation to remain above 2% unless a recession occurs next year. The firm's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli highlighted the importance of core goods inflation in moderating overall inflation but noted a less noticeable cooling in core services prices.

摩根大通2月初的报告预测,除非明年出现衰退,否则通货膨胀率将保持在2%以上。该公司首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利强调了核心商品通胀对缓和整体通货膨胀的重要性,但指出核心服务价格的降温不那么明显。

Given the ongoing discussions about inflation targets, some economists, including Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, have advocated for raising the Fed's inflation target to 3%, which could impact investor sentiment until resolved.

鉴于关于通胀目标的讨论仍在继续,包括诺贝尔奖得主经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼在内的一些经济学家主张将美联储的通胀目标提高到3%,这可能会影响投资者的情绪,直到问题得到解决。

In the market, the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP), which tracks inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, closed Wednesday's session slightly up at $107.56, according to Benzinga Pro data.

在市场上,根据Benzinga Pro的数据,追踪受通胀保护的美国国债的iShares TIPS债券ETF(纽约证券交易所代码:TIP)周三收盘小幅上涨至107.56美元。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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