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An Intrinsic Calculation For Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (NYSE:BNED) Suggests It's 35% Undervalued

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 17 05:01

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Barnes & Noble Education is US$1.65 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of US$1.08 suggests Barnes & Noble Education is potentially 35% undervalued
  • Barnes & Noble Education's peers are currently trading at a premium of 152% on average

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (NYSE:BNED) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Barnes & Noble Education

Is Barnes & Noble Education Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) -US$21.8m US$3.04m US$5.01m US$7.32m US$9.72m US$12.0m US$14.1m US$15.9m US$17.4m US$18.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 64.79% Est @ 46.02% Est @ 32.88% Est @ 23.68% Est @ 17.24% Est @ 12.74% Est @ 9.58% Est @ 7.37%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12% -US$19.4 US$2.4 US$3.5 US$4.6 US$5.5 US$6.0 US$6.3 US$6.3 US$6.2 US$5.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$27m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$19m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (12%– 2.2%) = US$191m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$191m÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= US$60m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$88m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$1.1, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NYSE:BNED Discounted Cash Flow January 17th 2024

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Barnes & Noble Education as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Barnes & Noble Education, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should explore:

  1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Barnes & Noble Education has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
  2. Future Earnings: How does BNED's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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