Undervalued Cannabis Stock? This Company Could Reach A C$1B Valuation On The Back Of Pre-Roll Sales
Undervalued Cannabis Stock? This Company Could Reach A C$1B Valuation On The Back Of Pre-Roll Sales
With a nearly 50% share in infused pre-rolls, which constitute 70% of its sales, Decibel Cannabis Co. Inc. (TSXV:DB) (OTC:DBCCF) is well-positioned in the market.
Decibel Cannabis Co. 在注入的预售片中占有近50%的份额,占其销售额的70%。Inc.(多伦多证券交易所股票代码:DB)(场外交易代码:DBCCF)在市场上处于有利地位。
A recent cannabis equity research report by Zuanic & Associates offers an in-depth evaluation of the company's market standing, financial status, and future potential.
Zuanic & Associates最近发布的大麻股票研究报告对公司的市场地位、财务状况和未来潜力进行了深入评估。
Market Leadership And Growth Prospects
市场领导地位和增长前景
Decibel Holdings leads in Canada's recreational cannabis market, especially with its popular pre-rolls and vapes among younger consumers, offering competitively priced infused pre-rolls through efficient automation and kief coating techniques.
Decibel Holdings在加拿大的休闲大麻市场上处于领先地位,尤其是其在年轻消费者中很受欢迎的预卷和电子烟,通过高效的自动化和kief涂层技术提供价格具有竞争力的注入预卷。
Financial Health
财务健康
The company has achieved seven consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow since the first quarter of 2022, a notable turnaround from the negative cash flows posted in 2020 and 2021.
自2022年第一季度以来,该公司已连续七个季度实现正自由现金流,与2020年和2021年公布的负现金流相比,这是一个显著的转机。
Gross margins have improved significantly and EBITDA margins have risen to the mid-twenties, which is exceptional for a Canadian cannabis company.
毛利率显著提高,息税折旧摊销前利润率已上升至二十年代中期,这对于加拿大大麻公司来说是非同寻常的。
"EBITDA margins rose from low to mid-20s, exceptional for a Canadian cannabis company. This is attributed to the company's expertise in infused pre-rolls and a refined vape strategy," Pablo Zuanic, senior analyst noted.
“息税折旧摊销前利润率从20年代的低点上升到20年代中期,这对于一家加拿大大麻公司来说是例外。这要归功于该公司在注入预售方面的专业知识和完善的电子烟策略。” 高级分析师巴勃罗·祖安尼奇指出。
"The product mix shifted significantly; in 1Q21, it was 47% vape, 21% flower, 19% concentrates, and 13% pre-rolls, while in 3Q23, over 90% infused pre-rolls made up 70% of sales, and vape 27%, as per Hifyre data."
“产品结构发生了显著变化;根据Hifyre的数据,在21年第一季度,电子烟为47%,鲜花为21%,浓缩液为19%,预卷为13%,而在23年第三季度,超过90%的注入的预卷占销售额的70%,电子烟占27%。”
Valuation And Investment Outlook
估值和投资展望
Decibel Holdings trades at 0.8x EV/sales, which is considered compelling value. The stock is deemed undervalued compared to most of its direct LP peers.
Decibel Holdings的交易价格为每股收益的0.8倍,这被认为是极具吸引力的价值。与大多数直接持股同行相比,该股被认为被低估了。
"Decibel trades at 0.8x EV/sales, lower than most LP peers, except (NASDAQ:OGI) and (NASDAQ:VFF). Compared on a similar basis, Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) trades higher. With less trading volume on the TSX Ventures, Decibel might be undervalued, yet this presents an opportunity. The company, a leader in pre-rolls and vaping, is expanding exports and aiming for U.S. growth, boasting strong financials like 50% gross margins and positive free cash flow," Zuanic wrote.
“Decibel的交易价格为EV/销售额的0.8倍,低于大多数LP同行,(纳斯达克股票代码:OGI)和(纳斯达克股票代码:VFF)除外。相比之下,蒂尔雷(纳斯达克股票代码:TLRY)的股价走高。由于多伦多证券交易所风险投资公司的交易量减少,Decibel的估值可能会被低估,但这提供了机会。该公司是预售和电子烟领域的领导者,正在扩大出口,目标是美国的增长,拥有强劲的财务状况,例如50%的毛利率和正的自由现金流,” Zuanic写道。
"Its future EV/Sales is projected at 0.2x by FY25, indicating significant potential upside, with the company unlikely to be acquired at this stage."
“预计到25财年,其未来电动汽车/销售额将达到0.2倍,这表明该公司具有巨大的潜在上行空间,该公司现阶段不太可能被收购。”
Zuanic's Bull Case Vs. Bear Case Thesis
Zuanic's Bull Case Vs.熊案论文
In the bull case, Decibel's combined domestic and international value could reach $1 billion, 8x current levels.
在牛市的情况下,Decibel的国内和国际总价值可能达到10亿美元,是当前水平的8倍。
Zuanic foresees the Canadian recreational market hitting C$7.5 billion by 2027, with Decibel potentially maintaining a 12-14% share, especially in pre-rolls and vapes.
Zuanic预计,到2027年,加拿大娱乐市场将达到75亿加元,其中Decibel有可能保持12-14%的份额,尤其是在预售和电子烟方面。
"Using a 0.4x wholesale deflator, 25% EBITDA margins, and a 20x EBITDA multiple, the recreational segment alone could be worth C$1.95Bn. The export business, valued at 5-10x sales, could bring the export value to C$100Mn," Zuanic wrote.
“使用0.4倍的批发平减指数、25%的息税折旧摊销前利润率和20倍的息税折旧摊销前利润倍数,仅娱乐板块的价值就可能达到19.5亿加元。出口业务的价值为销售额的5-10倍,可能使出口额达到1亿加元,” 祖安尼奇写道。
The bear case for Decibel centers on competition in infused pre-rolls and evolving vape technology, but the company's competitive pricing and innovative vape products, coupled with stable regulatory conditions, mitigate these risks.
对于Decibel来说,不利的理由集中在注入预售和不断发展的电子烟技术方面的竞争上,但该公司具有竞争力的定价和创新的电子烟产品,加上稳定的监管条件,降低了这些风险。
Photo: AI-Generated Image.
照片:人工智能生成的图像。