Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Reduction in First Quarter
Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Reduction in First Quarter
Bill Ackman, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, anticipates the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts sooner than market predictions.
潘兴广场资本管理公司的亿万富翁创始人比尔·阿克曼预计，美联储将比市场预测更早地启动降息。
What Happened: Ackman predicts the rate cuts could take place as early as the coming quarter, Bloomberg reported. Currently, market data from swaps suggests an 80% likelihood of a rate cut by May, with traders fully expecting a cut by June.
发生了什么：彭博社报道，阿克曼预测最早可能在下个季度降息。目前，掉期的市场数据显示，到5月降息的可能性为80％，交易者完全预计到6月降息。
Despite the steepest rate hike in 40 years that started in March 2022, the central bank has yet to implement any rate cuts, even amid a general slowdown in U.S. inflation this year.
尽管从2022年3月开始了40年来最大幅度的加息，但即使在今年美国通货膨胀普遍放缓的情况下，央行仍未实施任何降息。
Ackman expressed his apprehensions about the real rate of interest rising while inflation is on the decline during an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.
在即将播出的《大卫·鲁宾斯坦秀：点对点对话》中，阿克曼对实际利率上升而通货膨胀率下降表示担忧。
See Also: S&P 500 At 5,000 In 2024? Bank of America's Optimistic Forecast Diversifies Beyond Magnificent 7
另见：标准普尔500指数在2024年达到5,000美元？美国银行的乐观预测不仅仅局限于 “壮丽7”
He cautioned that if rates are maintained around the 5.5% range while inflation drops below 3%, it could result in a significantly high real rate of interest.
他警告说，如果利率维持在5.5％左右，而通货膨胀率降至3％以下，则可能导致实际利率居高不下。
"I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," said Ackman.
阿克曼说：“我认为，如果美联储不很快开始降息，确实存在硬着陆的风险。”
Why It Matters: Expectations regarding interest rates have taken a dovish turn since the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting earlier this month. After recent inflation data indicated a continuing slowdown in consumer and producer price inflation, U.S. interest rate markets were predicting a 65% chance that the Fed would decrease rates by May 2024. There are fears that both economic growth and corporate profits will slow down if the Fed persists with its "higher for longer" position.
为何重要：自本月早些时候美联储政策制定会议以来，对利率的预期发生了鸽派转变。在最近的通胀数据显示消费者和生产者物价通胀持续放缓之后，美国利率市场预测美联储到2024年5月降息的可能性为65％。有人担心，如果美联储坚持其 “长期走高” 的立场，经济增长和企业利润都将放缓。
Earlier, in October, Bank of America analysts projected that the Federal Reserve would continue increasing interest rates in December 2023, following a "watch and see" period. This assumption was supported by the fact that the three most significant monthly economic indicators — the jobs report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and retail sales — all outperformed expectations.
早些时候，即10月，美国银行分析师预计，在 “观察和观察” 期之后，美联储将在2023年12月继续提高利率。这一假设得到了以下事实的支持：三个最重要的月度经济指标——就业报告、消费者价格指数（CPI）和零售销售——的表现都超过了预期。
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继续阅读：由于近期上涨、数据密集的一周使情绪谨慎，美国股市有望暂停：这位分析师为何这么认为
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