Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) share price is up 80% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 14% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. It is also impressive that the stock is up 33% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for Royal Caribbean Cruises
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Royal Caribbean Cruises grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
We think the growth looks very prospective, so we're not surprised the market liked it too. Generally speaking the profitability inflection point is a great time to research a company closely, lest you miss an opportunity to profit.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
NYSE:RCL Earnings Per Share Growth November 27th 2023
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Royal Caribbean Cruises has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 80% in the last twelve months. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 0.9% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Royal Caribbean Cruises (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
被动投资指数基金可以产生与整个市场大致相匹配的回报。但是,如果你选择了正确的个股,你的收益可能不止于此。例如,皇家加勒比邮轮有限公司(纽约证券交易所代码:RCL)的股价在过去1年中上涨了80%,显然超过了约14%的市场回报率(不包括股息)。因此,这应该让股东们微笑。同样令人印象深刻的是,该股在三年内上涨了33%,这更加让人感觉自己是真正的赢家。
因此,让我们评估过去一年的基本面,看看它们是否与股东回报步调一致。
查看我们对皇家加勒比邮轮的最新分析
尽管一些人继续教导高效市场假说,但事实证明,市场是反应过度的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。研究市场情绪如何随着时间的推移而变化的一种方法是研究公司股价与其每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
去年,皇家加勒比邮轮公司的每股收益从亏损转为盈利。
我们认为增长看起来很有前景,因此市场也喜欢增长并不奇怪。一般来说,盈利能力的转折点是仔细研究公司的好时机,以免错过获利的机会。
下图描述了 EPS 随着时间的推移是如何变化的(点击图片可以看到确切的值)。
纽约证券交易所:RCL 每股收益增长 2023 年 11 月 27 日
我们喜欢内部人士在过去十二个月中一直在购买股票。即便如此,未来的收益对于当前股东能否赚钱要重要得多。在买入或卖出股票之前,我们始终建议仔细研究历史增长趋势,可在此处查阅。
不同的视角
很高兴看到皇家加勒比邮轮在过去十二个月中向股东提供了80%的股东总回报率。毫无疑问,最近的回报比五年内每年0.9%的股东总回报率损失要好得多。我们通常更看重短期内的长期业绩,但最近的改善可能暗示业务将出现(积极的)转折点。我发现从长远来看,将股价视为业务表现的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正获得见解,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,以永远存在的投资风险幽灵为例。我们已经在皇家加勒比邮轮公司发现了两个警告信号(至少有一个有点不愉快),了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
还有很多其他公司有内部人士购买股票。你可能不想错过这份业内人士正在收购的成长型公司的免费名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。