Haitong Securities released a research report saying that judging from companies that have released 2Q23 results, thanks to an excellent business model and continuous iteration of their own organizational structure and business,Internet companies have shown strong resilience under the pressure of the current macro environment; Considering the repurchases of leading companies (as of the end of June 2023, Alibaba Group still has a repurchase amount of 16.3 billion US dollars) and dividend plans (Alibaba Group's board of directors approved the spin-off of Cloud Intelligence Group by allocating dividends to shareholders), it is recommended that emphasis be placed on sector valuation and cost performance.
▍ The main views of Haitong Securities are as follows:
The summer season is driving a recovery in service consumption, and it is planned to add service retail sales data in August.
① The summer season led to a recovery in service consumption: Food and beverage revenue of 427.7 billion yuan in July increased 15.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate recovered to above the 80% quartile since 2018; furthermore, in July, service CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the increase in the same period of previous years. The data shows the impressive performance of the travel chain.
② It is proposed to add retail sales data for services in August: Starting in August, the Bureau of Statistics plans to increase retail sales data for services (including transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, etc.), and increasing the monthly tracking index for service consumption (currently catering only) will help better portray the recovery in service consumption.
The e-commerce penetration rate is steadily increasing, and we are optimistic about the efficient e-commerce business.
In January-July, online retail sales of 8.3 trillion dollars increased 12.5% year on year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods increased 10.0% year on year, accounting for 26.4% of total social value (up 0.8 pct.). Online food, clothing, and consumer goods grew 8.7%, 12.0%, and 9.5% respectively.
The current macro environment still has some pressure on consumer consumption, and platform discounts are becoming more attractive to consumers; however, the discount space for retailers depends on the efficiency of the retail industry, and they are still optimistic about the medium- to long-term growth space of the efficient retail industry represented by e-commerce.
Judging from companies that have released 2Q23 results, thanks to their excellent business models, their own organizational structure, and continuous iteration of business, Internet companies have shown strong resilience under pressure from the current macro environment; considering the repurchases of leading companies (as of the end of June 2023, Alibaba Group still has a repurchase amount of 16.3 billion US dollars) and dividend plans (Alibaba Group's board of directors approved the spin-off of Cloud Intelligence Group by allocating dividends to shareholders), it is recommended to pay attention to sector valuation and cost effectiveness.
Industry risk tips:
Consumption continues to weaken; new business formats are being diverted; industry competition is intensifying; and regulatory policies are uncertain.