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Are Investors Undervaluing BOE Technology Group Company Limited (SZSE:000725) By 49%?

Are Investors Undervaluing BOE Technology Group Company Limited (SZSE:000725) By 49%?

投资者是否低估了京东方科技集团有限公司(深圳证券交易所代码:000725)49%?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/08/07 00:20

Key Insights

关键见解

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, BOE Technology Group fair value estimate is CN¥8.10
  • Current share price of CN¥4.17 suggests BOE Technology Group is potentially 49% undervalued
  • Our fair value estimate is 59% higher than BOE Technology Group's analyst price target of CN¥5.09
  • 根据两阶段自由现金流转股权,京东方科技集团的公允价值估计为人民币8.10元
  • 目前的股价为4.17元人民币,表明京东方科技集团可能被低估了49%
  • 我们的公允价值估计比京东方科技集团的分析师目标价5.09元高出59%

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of BOE Technology Group Company Limited (SZSE:000725) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

今天,我们将通过一种估算京东方科技集团有限公司(深交所股票代码:000725)的内在价值的方法,即采用预期的未来现金流并将其折现为今天的价值。实现这一目标的一种方法是采用贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型。信不信由你,这并不难理解,正如你将从我们的例子中看到的那样!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

我们普遍认为,公司的价值是其未来将产生的所有现金的现值。但是,差价合约只是众多估值指标中的一个,而且并非没有缺陷。任何有兴趣进一步了解内在价值的人都应该读一读 Simply Wall St 分析模型。

See our latest analysis for BOE Technology Group

查看我们对京东方科技集团的最新分析

Step By Step Through The Calculation

逐步进行计算

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

差价合约就是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的概念,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值折现为以今天的美元计算的估计价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥16.4b CN¥23.7b CN¥29.5b CN¥34.8b CN¥39.5b CN¥43.6b CN¥47.2b CN¥50.4b CN¥53.2b CN¥55.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 24.36% Est @ 17.97% Est @ 13.50% Est @ 10.38% Est @ 8.19% Est @ 6.66% Est @ 5.58% Est @ 4.83%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 15% CN¥14.4k CN¥18.1k CN¥19.6k CN¥20.2k CN¥20.0k CN¥19.3k CN¥18.2k CN¥17.0k CN¥15.6k CN¥14.3k
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) 人民币 16.4b cn¥23.7b CN¥29.5b 348亿人民币 39.5亿人民币 43.6b 人民币 人民币 47.2b 人民币 50.4b 人民币 53.2b 人民币 55.7b
增长率估算来源 分析师 x2 分析师 x2 Est @ 24.36% Est @ 17.97% Est @ 13.50% Est @ 10.38% Est @ 8.19% Est @ 6.66% Est @ 5.58% Est @ 4.83%
现值(人民币,百万)折扣价 @ 15% cn¥14.4k CN¥18.1k cn¥19.6k 人民币 20.2k CN¥20.0k CN¥19.3k CN¥18.2k CN¥17.0k cn¥15.6k CN¥14.3 万

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥177b

(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = CN¥177b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

在计算了最初10年期间未来现金流的现值之后,我们需要计算终端价值,该终端价值考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(3.1%)来估计未来的增长。与10年的 “增长” 期相同,我们将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值,使用15%的股权成本。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥56b× (1 + 3.1%) ÷ (15%– 3.1%) = CN¥500b

终端价值 (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ε (r — g) = cn¥56b× (1 + 3.1%) ε (15% — 3.1%) = cn¥500b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥500b÷ ( 1 + 15%)10= CN¥128b

终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= CN¥500bε (1 + 15%)10= cn¥128b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥305b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥4.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

总价值是未来十年的现金流之和加上贴现的最终价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为人民币305亿元。最后一步是将股票价值除以已发行股票数量。与目前的股价4.2元相比,该公司的估值似乎被低估了,比目前的股价折扣了49%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度然后最终进入另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。

dcf
SZSE:000725 Discounted Cash Flow August 7th 2023
深交所代码:000725 贴现现金流 2023 年 8 月 7 日

Important Assumptions

重要假设

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at BOE Technology Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.605. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上面的计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将京东方科技集团视为潜在股东,因此权益成本被用作贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了15%,这是基于1.605的杠杆贝塔值。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比的波动率的指标。我们的beta值来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,其限制在0.8至2.0之间,这对于稳定的业务来说是一个合理的区间。

SWOT Analysis for BOE Technology Group

京东方科技集团的SWOT分析

Strength
力量
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 债务不被视为风险。
  • Balance sheet summary for 000725.
  • 000725 的资产负债表摘要。
Weakness
弱点
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • 在过去的一年中,收益有所下降。
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
  • 与电子市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
Opportunity
机会
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Chinese market.
  • 预计年收益的增长速度将快于中国市场。
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
  • 根据市盈率和估计的公允价值,物有所值。
Threat
威胁
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.
  • 股息不包括在收益中。
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
  • 预计年收入的增长速度将低于中国市场。
  • See 000725's dividend history.
  • 查看 000725 的股息历史记录。

Next Steps:

后续步骤:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For BOE Technology Group, there are three pertinent aspects you should further examine:

尽管公司的估值很重要,但它不应该是你在研究公司时要考虑的唯一指标。DCF模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为 “这只股票被低估/高估需要哪些假设是正确的?” 的指南如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股权成本或无风险利率急剧变化,那么产出可能会大不相同。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于京东方科技集团,您应该进一步研究三个相关方面:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for BOE Technology Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 000725's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  1. 风险: 例如,我们发现了 京东方科技集团的三个警告信号 在这里投资之前,你应该注意这一点。
  2. 未来收益: 000725的增长率与同行和整个市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他高质量的替代品: 你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还缺少什么!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只中国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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