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Robust Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Kwan Yong Holdings (HKG:9998)

Robust Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Kwan Yong Holdings (HKG:9998)

强劲的收益可能无法说明光永控股的全部情况(HKG: 9998)
Simply Wall St ·  2023/03/02 18:01

Following the solid earnings report from Kwan Yong Holdings Limited (HKG:9998), the market responded by bidding up the stock price. However, we think that shareholders should be cautious as we found some worrying factors underlying the profit.

继来自以下公司的稳健收益报告之后群勇集团有限公司(HKG:9998),市场的反应是抬高股价。然而,我们认为股东应该谨慎,因为我们发现了一些令人担忧的利润背后的因素。

See our latest analysis for Kwan Yong Holdings

查看我们对关勇控股的最新分析

earnings-and-revenue-history
SEHK:9998 Earnings and Revenue History March 2nd 2023
联交所:9998盈利及收入历史2023年3月2日

Examining Cashflow Against Kwan Yong Holdings' Earnings

审查现金流与关勇控股的收益

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

在高端金融领域,衡量一家公司将报告利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的程度的关键比率是应计比率(来自现金流)。为了得到应计比率,我们首先从一个时期的利润中减去FCF,然后用这个数字除以该时期的平均运营资产。你可以把来自现金流的应计比率看作是‘非FCF利润率’。

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

这意味着负的应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的要多。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,在应计比率相当高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,一般来说,高应计比率对短期利润来说不是一个好兆头。

Over the twelve months to December 2022, Kwan Yong Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of -0.19. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of S$4.8m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of S$2.14m. Given that Kwan Yong Holdings had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of S$4.8m would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

在截至2022年12月的12个月内,群勇控股的应计比率为-0.19。这意味着它有非常好的现金转换率,而且它去年的收益实际上大大低估了它的自由现金流。换言之,该公司在此期间产生了480万新加坡元的自由现金流,令其公布的214万新加坡元利润相形见绌。鉴于冠勇控股上一季度的自由现金流为负,随后12个月480万新元的业绩似乎是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。话虽如此,故事中还有更多的东西。应计比率反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响,至少在一定程度上是这样。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Kwan Yong Holdings.

注:我们总是建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对群勇控股的资产负债表分析。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

不寻常的项目如何影响利润?

Surprisingly, given Kwan Yong Holdings' accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by S$1.9m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Kwan Yong Holdings' positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

令人意外的是,鉴于关永控股的应计比率意味着强劲的现金转换,其账面利润实际上因异常项目而增加了190万新元。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当不寻常的项目做出了很大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大的不寻常项目往往不会重复。毕竟,这正是会计术语所暗示的。我们可以看到,关勇控股的积极异常项目与其截至2022年12月的年度利润相比相当重要。在其他条件不变的情况下,这可能会使法定利润成为衡量潜在盈利能力的糟糕指标。

Our Take On Kwan Yong Holdings' Profit Performance

我们对群勇控股盈利表现的看法

In conclusion, Kwan Yong Holdings' accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Kwan Yong Holdings's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. If you'd like to know more about Kwan Yong Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Kwan Yong Holdings and we think they deserve your attention.

总而言之,群勇控股的应计比率表明其法定收益质量良好,但另一方面,利润受到不寻常项目的提振。考虑到这两种截然不同的考虑,我们对冠勇控股的利润是否恰如其分地反映了其潜在的盈利潜力并没有强烈的看法。如果你想更多地了解关勇控股作为一家企业,了解它面临的任何风险是很重要的。在Simply Wall St.,我们发现关勇控股的2个警告标志我们认为他们值得你的关注。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

在这篇文章中,我们研究了一些因素,这些因素可能会削弱利润数字作为企业指南的效用。但还有很多其他方式可以让你了解一家公司的看法。一些人认为,高股本回报率是高质量企业的良好标志。虽然这可能需要为您做一些研究,但您可能会发现免费拥有高股本回报率的公司的集合,或者是内部人士购买的有用的股票清单。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

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