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How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility

How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility

投资者如何在动荡中赚取数百万美元
InvestorPlace ·  2022/10/10 17:05

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It's been a crazy year in the markets, huh? But what if I told you that all this craziness is actually creating the money-making opportunity of the century

这是一个疯狂在市场上待了一年,是吧?但如果我告诉你,所有这些疯狂行为实际上正在创造本世纪最赚钱的机会?

You'd be skeptical. And that's fine. Just don't disregard me because I have a ton of data to prove that claim. Today, we sit on the cusp of arguably the biggest investment opportunity in the stock market… ever.

你会怀疑的。这很好。请不要忽视我,因为我有大量的数据可以证明这一说法。今天,我们坐在可以说是股票市场最大投资机会的尖端…永远不会.

Yes, I'm aware of all the problems the world is facing today. Decades-high inflation. A U.S. Federal Reserve embarking on the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in over 40 years. A war in Europe for the first time since World War II. The highest gas prices and grocery prices in decades. The biggest stock market crash since 2008. 

是的,我知道当今世界面临的所有问题。几十年来的高通胀。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)开始了40多年来最激进的加息周期。欧洲自二战以来首次爆发战争。数十年来最高的汽油价格和食品杂货价格。这是自2008年以来最大的股市崩盘。

Talk about unusual, volatile, scary.

谈论不同寻常的,不稳定的,吓人的.

Against that backdrop, I wouldn't blame you for wanting to run for the hills and take cover from the storm. But the great Warren Buffett once said that it is often best to be greedy when others are fearful. 

在这种背景下,我不会责怪你想要跑到山上躲避风暴。但伟大的沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过,在别人害怕的时候,往往最好是贪婪。

Everyone's fearful right now. 

现在每个人都很害怕。

The American Association of Individual Investors weekly survey has found that for two weeks in a row, the percentage of bearish investors in America has outnumbered the percentage of bullish investors by more than 40%. That's an unusually high number which marks "peak fear." Indeed, the net bull ratio has been this low only once before, in early March 2009 – the exact same week stocks bottomed after the 2008 financial crisis!

美国个人投资者协会的每周调查发现,连续两周,美国看跌投资者的比例比看涨投资者的比例高出40%以上。这是一个异常高的数字,标志着“恐惧达到顶峰”。事实上,净多头比率以前只有一次如此之低,那是在2009年3月初--就在同一周,股市在2008年金融危机后触底!

Let that sink in for a moment… 

让它沉浸在那一刻…

There's nothing but fear out there. Buffett would tell us to get greedy here. But should we heed those words of advice?

外面除了恐惧什么都没有。巴菲特会告诉我们在这里要贪婪。但我们应该听从这些忠告吗?

Absolutely.

绝对一点儿没错.

Fear Can Be a Good Thing?

恐惧可以是一件好事吗?

Over the past several months, my team and I have been studying the intricacies of stock market crashes throughout the history of modern capitalism – and we discovered something amazing. 

在过去的几个月里,我和我的团队一直在研究现代资本主义历史上错综复杂的股市崩盘--我们发现了一些令人惊讶的东西。

Specifically, we've discovered a rare stock market phenomenon that occurs about once every 10 years. And it consistently represents the best buying opportunities in U.S. stock market history. 

具体地说,我们发现了一个罕见的股市现象这种情况大约每10年发生一次。它一直代表着美国股市历史上最好的买入机会。

More than that, we figured out how to quantitatively identify this phenomenon. Yes,  we have engineered a way to take advantage of it for massive profits.

更重要的是,我们找到了如何定量识别这种现象的方法。是的,我们有经过精心设计一种利用它来赚取巨额利润的方法。

Well, folks, guess what's happening right now? 

好吧,伙计们,猜猜现在发生了什么?

This ultra-rare stock market phenomenon has emerged. And our models are flashing bright "Buy" signals.

这种极其罕见的股市现象已经出现。我们的车型闪耀着明亮的“Buy”"信号。

I know. That may sound pretty counterintuitive, considering what's going on in the market right now. 

我知道呀。考虑到目前市场的情况,这听起来可能非常违反直觉。

But I'm staking my career on this claim – because it's really not an opinion. It's a fact. Backed by data, history, statistics and mathematics. Backed by the biggest market phenomenon in history. 

但我将我的职业生涯押在这一说法上--因为这真的不是一种观点。这是事实。以数据、历史、统计和数学为后盾。在历史上最大的市场现象的支持下。

So, I repeat: We stand on the cusp of an opportunity of a lifetime. 

因此,我再说一遍:我们正站在千载难逢的机遇的边缘。

By now, you're probably asking: OK, Luke, you have my attention…but where's the proof?

现在,你可能会问:好的,卢克,你引起了我的注意…但证据在哪里呢?

Glad you asked because I have lots of that. Let's take a deep look. 

很高兴你这么问,因为我有很多这样的东西。让我们来深入看看。

Stock Prices Follow Fundamentals

股价跟随基本面走势

To understand the unique phenomenon my team and I have identified, we need to first understand the behavior patterns of stocks. 

要理解我和我的团队发现的这一独特现象,我们首先需要了解股票的行为模式。

In the short term, stocks are driven by myriad factors. These include geopolitics, interest rate,. inflation, elections, recession fears, and so on. 

短期内,股市受到多种因素的推动。这些因素包括地缘政治、利率等。通货膨胀、选举、对经济衰退的担忧等等。

Big picture, however, stocks are driven by one thing and one thing only: fundamentals.

然而,从整体上看,股票只由一件事驱动:基本面.

That is, at the end of the day, revenues and earnings drive stock prices. If a company's revenues and earnings trend upward over time, then the company's stock price will follow suit. Conversely, if a company's revenues and earnings trend downward over time, then the company's stock price will drop. 

也就是说,在一天结束时,收入收益推动股价上涨。如果一家公司的收入和收益随着时间的推移呈上升趋势,那么该公司的股价也会随之上升。相反,如果一家公司的收入和收益随着时间的推移呈下降趋势,那么该公司的股价就会下跌。

That may sound like an oversimplification. But, honestly, it's not

这听起来可能过于简单化了。但是,说实话,不是的.

Just look at the following chart. It graphs the earnings per share of the S&P 500 (the blue line) alongside the price of the S&P 500 (the orange line) from 1988 to 2022. 

请看下面的图表。它绘制了该公司的每股收益图表标准普尔500指数(蓝线)与标准普尔500指数(橙线)的价格从1988年到2022年。

As you can see, the blue line (earnings per share) lines up almost perfectly with the orange line (price). The two could not be more strongly correlated. Indeed, the mathematical correlation between the two is 0.93. That's incredibly strong. A perfect correlation is 1. A perfect anti-correlation is -1. 

正如你所看到的,蓝线(每股收益)与橙线(价格)几乎完全一致。两者之间的关联性再强不过了。事实上,两者之间的数学关联性是 0.93。这是令人难以置信的强大。完全相关是1。完全反相关是-1。

Therefore, the historical correlation between earnings and stock prices is about as perfectly correlated as anything gets in the real world.

所以呢,盈利和股价之间的历史相关性几乎与现实世界中的任何东西都完全相关。.

In other words, you can forget the Fed. You can forget inflation and geopolitics. You can forget trade wars, recessions, depressions, and financial crises. 

换句话说,你可以忘记美联储。你可以忘掉通胀和地缘政治。你可以忘记贸易战、经济衰退、大萧条和金融危机。

We've seen all of that over the past 35 years – and yet, through it all, the correlation between earnings and stock prices never broke or even faltered at all. 

在过去的35年里,我们看到了这一切--然而,在这一切过程中,收益和股价之间的相关性从未被打破,甚至根本没有动摇。

At the end of the day, earnings drive stock prices. History is crystal clear on that. In fact, history is as clear on that as it is on anything, mathematically speaking.  

在一天结束时,盈利推动股价上涨。在这一点上,历史是非常清楚的。事实上,从数学上讲,历史在这一点上和在任何事情上一样清楚。

The phenomenon my team and I have identified has to do with this correlation. In fact, it has to do with a "break" in this correlation – a break that historically only arises when recession fears are peaking and has produced the greatest stock market buying opportunities in history.  

我和我的团队发现的现象与这种相关性有关。事实上,这与这种关联性的“中断”有关-历史上只有在经济衰退担忧达到顶峰时才会出现这种突破,并创造了历史上最大的股市买入机会。

Great Divergence Creates Great Opportunities

大分流创造大好机遇

Every once in a while – specifically, about once a decade – earnings and revenues temporarily stop driving stock prices. 

每隔一段时间--具体地说,大约十年一次--暂时的收益和收入推动股价上涨。

We call this anomaly a "divergence."

我们把这种反常现象称为“发散."

During these divergences, companies continue to see their revenues and earnings rise. But due to some macroeconomic fears, their stock prices will temporarily collapse. The result is that a company's stock price diverges from its fundamental growth trend. 

在这些分歧期间,公司的收入和收益继续增长。但由于一些宏观经济方面的担忧,它们的股价将暂时崩盘。其结果是,一家公司的股价偏离了其基本面增长趋势。

Every time these rare divergences emerge, they turn into generational buying opportunities. Stock prices "snap back" to fundamental growth trends, and investors who bought the dip see their returns rocket. 

每当这些罕见的分歧出现时,它们就会变成几代人的买入机会。股票价格从基本面的增长趋势“迅速反弹”,买入下跌的投资者看到他们的回报飙升。

This has happened time and time again, like clockwork, throughout the market's history.

在整个市场的历史上,这种情况一次又一次地发生,就像钟表一样。

It happened in the late 1980s during the Savings & Loans crisis. High-quality growth companies – like Microsoft (MSFT) – saw their stock prices collapse while revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence doubled their money in a year and scored a jaw-dropping ~40,000% returns (on average) in the long run. 

这件事发生在20世纪80年代末在储蓄和贷款危机期间。像这样的高质量成长型公司微软(MSFT)-看到他们的股价暴跌,而收入和收益继续增长。利用这种差距获利的投资者在一年内将资金翻了一番,从长期来看,他们获得了令人瞠目结舌的~40000%的回报率(平均)。

And it happened in the early 2000s after the dot-com crash. High-quality growth companies – like Amazon (AMZN) – saw their stock prices plunge. But their revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence more than doubled their money in a year and scored more than 20,000% returns in the long run. 

这件事发生在21世纪初在互联网崩盘之后。像这样的高质量成长型公司亚马逊(AMZN)-看到他们的股价暴跌。但他们的收入和收益一直在增长。利用这一差距获利的投资者在一年内将资金增加了一倍以上,长期回报率超过20000%。

It happened again in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis. High-quality growth companies – like Salesforce (CRM) – saw their stock prices collapse. But their revenues and earnings kept rising. Investors who capitalized on this divergence almost tripled their money in a year and hit 10X returns in just five years. 

这件事又发生在 2008在大金融危机期间。像这样的高质量成长型公司Salesforce(CRM)-眼看着他们的股价暴跌。但他们的收入和收益一直在增长。利用这种差异的投资者在一年内几乎将资金增加了两倍,并在短短五年内实现了10倍的回报。

This is the most profitable repeating pattern in stock market history. And it's happening again right now for the first time in 14 years. 

这是股市历史上最有利可图的重复模式。现在这种情况再次发生,这是14年来的首次。

The Final Word on Divergence

关于分歧的最后一句话

My team and I understand that market volatility always creates market opportunity

我和我的团队了解这个市场波动性总是创造市场机遇.

So, amid the market's wild gyrations of 2022, we've made it our top priority to research market volatility and develop a stock-picking strategy to make tons of money during choppy markets. 

因此,在2022年市场的剧烈震荡中,我们的首要任务是研究市场波动性,并制定一种选股策略,以在动荡的市场中赚取大量资金。

That led us to making the biggest discovery in InvestorPlace history: the existence of rare divergence windows.

这让我们做出了最大的发现投资商位置历史:稀有发散窗口的存在性.

These divergence windows only appear about once a decade, amid peak market volatility. They open for very brief moments in time and only for certain stocks. But if you capitalize on them – by buying the right stocks at exactly the right moment – you can make a lot of money while everyone else is struggling to survive in a choppy market. 

这些分化窗口大约每十年才出现一次,当时正值市场波动的高峰期。它们的开盘时间非常短,而且只针对某些股票。但如果你利用这些机会--在正确的时间买入正确的股票--你可以赚很多钱,而其他所有人都在动荡的市场中挣扎求生。

More than that, these divergence windows give you a real shot at turning $10,000 investments into multi-million-dollar paydays. 

不仅如此,这些分散窗口让你真正有机会将1万美元的投资转化为数百万美元的发薪日。

The more we researched these divergence windows, the more excited we became. 

我们对这些发散窗口的研究越多,我们就越兴奋。

But here's the most important part: Because these opportunities emerge out of fear in the markets – and because we've reached peak fear – my team and I have concluded that this ultra-rare investment opportunity is rapidly closing shut.

但最重要的是:因为这些机会来自市场的恐惧--也因为我们已经达到了恐惧的顶峰--我和我的团队得出结论,这种极其罕见的投资机会快速关闭关闭.

This is your final chance to capitalize on what could be the biggest investment opportunity of your life. 

这可能是你一生中最大的投资机会,这是你最后的机会。

That's why we're calling this month the "Zero Hour." It's your final opportunity to capitalize on the 2022 divergence. 

这就是为什么我们把这个月称为“零点.这是你利用2022年分歧的最后机会。

To help you do that, we've put together an emergency broadcast – unsurprisingly dubbed the Zero Hour – to walk you through this enormous investment opportunity. We will go LIVE with that broadcast this Thursday afternoon, at 4 p.m. EST.

为了帮助你做到这一点,我们为你准备了一个紧急广播-毫不意外地被称为零点时刻-带你度过这一巨大的投资机会。我们将在本周四下午4点进行现场直播。艾斯特。

In it, I'll unveil my No. 1 "late-stage" divergence stock to buy right now – for free. This is a stock that could easily soar hundreds of percent over the next year alone!

在这篇文章中,我将揭开我的头号“晚期”发散股票的面纱,现在就可以免费购买。这只股票很容易在接下来的一年里飙升数百%!

More than that, I'll even give viewers the chance to access a brand-new, never-before-seen portfolio of divergence stocks set to soar over the next year.

更重要的是,我甚至会让观众有机会接触到一个全新的、前所未见的分散型股票投资组合,这些股票将在明年飙升。

This is certainly a broadcast you don't want to miss.

这当然是一场你不想错过期待的转播。

Reserve your seat now.

现在就预订座位吧。

On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

截至发稿之日,卢克·兰戈并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。

The post How Investors Make Millions Amid Volatility appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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