The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (HKG:293), since the last five years saw the share price fall 31%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways
Cathay Pacific Airways isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over half a decade Cathay Pacific Airways reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 19% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. It seems pretty reasonable to us that the share price dipped 6% per year in that time. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. It is possible for businesses to bounce back but as Buffett says, 'turnarounds seldom turn'.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:293 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 7th 2022
Cathay Pacific Airways is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Cathay Pacific Airways in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Cathay Pacific Airways' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Cathay Pacific Airways shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 18%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Cathay Pacific Airways has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 26% in the last twelve months. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
选股的主要目的是寻找跑赢大盘的股票。但主要的游戏是找到足够多的赢家来抵消输家在这一点上一些股东可能会质疑他们对国泰航空有限公司(HKG:293),自过去五年股价下跌31%以来。
由于股东在较长期内下跌,让我们看看这段时间的基本基本面,看看它们是否与回报一致。
查看我们对国泰航空的最新分析
国泰航空目前尚未盈利,因此大多数分析师都会关注营收增长,以了解其基础业务的增长速度。当一家公司没有盈利时,我们通常预计会看到良好的收入增长。这是因为快速的收入增长可以很容易地推断出预期利润,通常是相当大的规模。
在过去的五年里,国泰航空公司的往绩12个月营收每年减少19%。委婉地说,这让它成了一个没有吸引力的群体。在我们看来,股价在这段时间里每年下跌6%似乎是相当合理的。我们怀疑有多少股东对这种股价表现感到满意。企业有可能反弹,但正如巴菲特所说,“扭亏为盈的情况很少出现转机”。
您可以在下图中看到收益和收入随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切的值)。
联交所:293盈利及收入增长2022年9月7日
国泰航空是一只知名的股票,有大量的分析师报道,这表明它对未来的增长有一定的可见性。你可以在这里看到分析师对国泰航空的预测互动未来利润预估图表。
那么总股东回报(TSR)呢?
如果不提国泰航空公司与中国航空公司之间的区别,我们就太失职了。股东总回报(TSR)及其股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。股息对国泰航空的股东来说确实是有益的,这种现金支付解释了为什么国泰航空在过去5年中18%的股东总损失没有股价回报那么糟糕。
不同的视角
很高兴看到国泰航空在过去12个月中回报了股东26%的总回报。毫无疑问,最近的回报率远好于TSR在过去五年中每年3%的损失。这让我们有点警惕,但这家企业可能已经扭转了命运。大多数投资者都会花时间检查内幕交易的数据。你可以点击这里,看看内部人士是在买入还是卖出。
如果你喜欢和管理层一起买股票,那么你可能会喜欢这本书免费公司名单。(提示:内部人士一直在买入这些股票)。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。