By Junko Fujita
作者：藤田顺子
Tokyo, May 22 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei Share Average .n225 Will Rise 4.6% By Year End, Supported by a Firm Corporate Outlook and a Solid Global Economy, According to Equity Market Strategists in a Reuters Poll.
东京，5月22日（路透社）——日本日经平均指数 .n225 股市策略师在路透社的一项民意调查中表示，在坚实的企业前景和稳健的全球经济的支持下，到年底将上涨4.6％。
The Nikkei Is Forecast to Trade at 40,750 At the End of This Year, According to the Median Estimate of 16 Analysts Polled May 13-21, up From Tuesday's Close of 38,946.93.
根据5月13日至21日接受调查的16位分析师的中位数估计，预计今年年底日经指数的交易价格为40,750点，高于周二收盘的38,946.93点。
Gains Have Been Capped Recently as Local Companies Issued Modest Earnings Forecasts at the Peak of Earnings Season This Month.
由于本地公司在本月财报季的高峰期发布了适度的收益预测，最近涨幅受到限制。
The Index Has Been Hovering Below 40,000 Since the Beginning of April After Hitting a Record Intraday High of 41,087.75 on March 22.
该指数在3月22日创下41,087.75的盘中历史新高后，自4月初以来一直徘徊在40,000以下。
"Many Japanese Companies Made Conservative Annual Forecasts but They Are Expected to Raise Their Outlook Toward the End of the Year, Which Will Lift the Nikkei," Said Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist at Nomura Securities.
野村证券首席股票策略师北冈智嘉表示：“许多日本公司做出了保守的年度预测，但预计他们将在年底提高展望，这将提振日经指数。”
"and Expectations for Further Progress in Corporate Governance Reform Will Also Push up Share Prices," He Said.
他说：“对公司治理改革进一步进展的预期也将推高股价。”
Share Buybacks and Unwinding Cross-Shareholders Driven by the Governance Change Were Behind the Index's Rally. the Nikkei Has Risen 16.4% So Far This Year, Following a 28.2% Gain in 2023.
治理变革推动的股票回购和交叉股东平仓是该指数上涨的幕后黑手。继2023年上涨28.2％之后，日经指数今年迄今已上涨16.4％。
"the U.S. Economy Is Strong and Will Remain Strong Even IF (Donald) Trump Wins the Presidential Election," Said Yugo Tsuboi, Chief Equity Strategist at Daiwa Securities, Who Expects the Nikkei to Be at 43,000 at the End of the Year.
大和证券首席股票策略师Yugo Tsuboi表示：“美国经济强劲，即使（唐纳德）特朗普赢得总统大选也将保持强劲，” 他预计年底日经指数将达到43,000点。
An Upturn in the Global Economy Will Help the Nikkei to Hit 44,000 Before Retreating to 40,500 at the End of the Year, Said Hikaru Yasuda, Chief Equity Strategist at Smbc Nikko Securities.
SMBC日兴证券首席股票策略师安田光表示，全球经济的回升将帮助日经指数达到44,000点，然后在年底回落至40,500点。
Uncertainties About the Yen's Move Against the Dollar Has Also Hurt Sentiment the Japanese Stock Market, but Some Strategists Said the Negative Impact of the Currency's Possible Gain Against the Dollar Will Be Limited.
日元兑美元走势的不确定性也损害了日本股市的情绪，但一些策略师表示，日元兑美元可能上涨的负面影响将是有限的。
The Yen Fell to a 34-Year Low of 160.245 per Dollar JPY=Ebs Late Last Month, Before Rebounding Sharply in What Traders and Analysts Suspected Was Several Rounds of Yen-Buying Intervention by Japanese Authorities.
日元跌至每美元160.245美元的34年低点 JPY=EBS 上个月底，在大幅反弹之前，交易员和分析师怀疑日本当局进行了几轮日元购买干预。
"IF the Yen Strengthens, Foreign Investors May Sell the Nikkei. but I Expect the Nikkei to Be at 40,000 at the End of This Year Even as the Yen Rises to 142 Yen to the Dollar Because Earnings of Japanese Companies Are on the Rise," Said Masayuki Kubota, Chief Strategist at Rakuten Securities.
乐天证券首席策略师久保田正之表示：“如果日元走强，外国投资者可能会卖出日经指数。但我预计，由于日本公司的收益在上升，日元兑美元汇率升至142日元，今年年底日经指数仍将达到4万日元。”
Strategists Also Said the Nikkei Is Unlikely to Correct 10% or More in the Coming Three Months.
策略师还表示，日经指数在未来三个月内不太可能修正10％或更多。
"There Are Some Potential Risks, Such as a Deterioration of the U.S. Economy and the Chip Boom, as Well as Tensions in the Middle East, but Unless These Things Occur, the Nikkei Is Unlikely to Fall Below 35,000," Said Shingo Ide, Chief Equity Strategist at Nli Research Institute.
Nli研究所首席股票策略师Shingo Ide表示：“存在一些潜在风险，例如美国经济恶化和芯片繁荣，以及中东的紧张局势，但除非这些事情发生，否则日经指数不太可能跌破35,000点。”
(Other Stories From the Reuters Q2 Global Stock Markets Poll Package: NL4N3Ho1O6)
（路透社第二季度全球股市民意调查套餐中的其他报道： nl4n3ho1o6)
(Additional Reporting by Tokyo Markets Team, Additional Polling by Pranoy Krishna and Purujit Arun; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
（东京市场团队的补充报道，普拉诺伊·克里希纳和普鲁吉特·阿伦的补充民意调查；野见山智祖编辑）