Lucid’s Forecast for 2022 Production Could Make or Break LCID Stock
Lucid’s Forecast for 2022 Production Could Make or Break LCID Stock
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Lucid Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings on Monday, Feb. 28, after the market closes. If Lucid provides guidance for 2022, it is possible LCID stock could move quite significantly.
Lucid Inc.纳斯达克(Standard Chartered Bank：LCID：LCID)将于2月28日(星期一)收盘后发布2021年第四季度和全年收益。如果Lucid为2022年提供指导，LCID的库存可能会出现相当大的波动。
So far, the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer has not provided any kind of pre-release guidance about production so far. The company went public in July 2021 with a reverse merger.
到目前为止，这家电动汽车(EV)制造商还没有提供任何形式的发布前生产指导。该公司于2021年7月通过反向合并上市。
Investors should expect to see Lucid show solid progress in the production of its EVs. As a result, if guidance is more upbeat than presently forecast by analysts, LCID stock could move higher.
投资者应该期待看到Lucid在其电动汽车的生产方面取得坚实的进展。因此，如果指引比分析师目前预测的更乐观，LCID的股价可能会走高。
The stock has taken a beating in the last three months. Lucid peaked at $55.52 per share on Nov. 16, but by Feb. 24 it was down to $24.48. That represents a huge decline of more than 55.9% from its peak.
在过去的三个月里，该股遭受重创。Lucid在11月16日达到每股55.52美元的峰值，但到2月24日跌至24.48美元。这代表着与峰值相比大幅下降了55.9%以上。
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Moreover, year-to-date (YTD), LCID stock is down 35.66% from where it ended last year at $38.05 per share.
此外，今年到目前为止，LCID的股票比去年年底下跌了35.66%，为每股38.05美元。
Where Things Stand With Lucid
与Lucid的关系
The Lucid Air model is currently being built and sold from the company's Casa Grande, Arizona plant (just south of Phoenix). This is a large, luxury EV sedan with a high price point. The Lucid Air starts at a price of $77,400 and goes up from there, depending on its configuration.
目前，该公司位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德(就在凤凰城以南)的工厂正在制造和销售Lucid Air车型。这是一款售价很高的大型豪华电动车。Lucid Air的起价为77,400美元，根据配置的不同，起价也会从77,400美元起。
It will be important to see whether the company is able to slice out a chunk of the luxury EV sedan market. This will mainly be seen in the company's forecasts for its 2022 deliveries.
重要的是要看看该公司是否能够在豪华电动汽车市场分一杯羹。这主要体现在该公司对2022年交货量的预测中。
For example, as it now stands, Lucid's prior forecasts in its slide deck predicted that during 2022, it will produce and deliver 49,000 EVs. This is after its forecast of 20,000 for 2021. This can be seen on page 65 of the document.
例如，就目前而言，Lucid之前在幻灯片中预测，在2022年期间，它将生产和交付4.9万辆电动汽车。这是在其2021年预测的2万人之后。这一点可以在文件的第65页看到。
The 2022 prediction includes the introduction of a sport-utility vehicle (SUV) model. Lucid projects it will deliver 12,000 of these EV SUVs during 2022.
2022年的预测包括推出一款运动型多功能车(SUV)。Lucid计划将在2022年交付1.2万辆这样的电动汽车SUV。
So, if the company says there will be any kind of slippage from this run-rate for its SUV production, the stock could react negatively. On the other hand, if Lucid affirms these projections or raises them, then LCID stock could rise.
因此，如果该公司表示，其SUV生产的运行率将出现任何形式的下滑，该股可能会做出负面反应。另一方面，如果Lucid确认或提高这些预测，那么LCID的股票可能会上涨。
Where This Leaves LCID Stock
这就留下了LCID库存
At this point, most investors are likely to take a "wait and see" approach to LCID stock. Analysts will have to revise their models. Once they review 2021 and any comments Lucid makes about existing production and sales in Q1, they will assess its valuation.
在这一点上，大多数投资者可能会对LCID的股票采取“观望”的态度。分析师将不得不修改他们的模型。一旦他们审查了2021年，以及Lucid对第一季度现有生产和销售的任何评论，他们将评估其估值。
Without blowout Q4 numbers, they may consider the stock fully valued at the present time. Therefore, most patient investors will wait for an opportunity to buy in at a cheaper price.
如果没有井喷式的第四季度数据，他们可能会认为这只股票目前已经完全估值。因此，大多数耐心的投资者都会等待机会，以更低的价格买入。
As it stands, analysts project revenue will hit $61.53 million for 2021 and just over $2 billion for 2022. This is based on the average of six analysts for both 2021 and 2022.
目前的情况是，分析师预计2021年的营收将达到6153万美元，2022年的营收将略高于20亿美元。这是基于2021年和2022年6名分析师的平均值。
Given that Lucid had a market capitalization of just over $42 billion as of Feb. 24, according to Seeking Alpha, that puts LCID stock on a price-to-sales (P/S) of 21 times.
鉴于截至2月24日Lucid的市值略高于420亿美元，根据寻找Alpha，这使得LCID股票的市盈率(P/S)为21倍。
So, in effect, the market is fully discounting all of 2022 and is looking forward by two more years. For example, the production model calls for 90,000 EVs to be delivered by 2024 and revenue to hit $9.93 billion. That puts it on a three-year forward P/S multiple of just 2.2 times sales. However, that multiple will be higher if adjusted on a present-value basis.
因此，实际上，市场完全贴现了2022年的所有数据，并预计还会有两年。例如，生产模式要求到2024年交付9万辆电动汽车，收入达到99.3亿美元。这使得它的三年远期市盈率仅为销售额的2.2倍。然而，如果在现值基础上进行调整，这一倍数将会更高。
The bottom line is that LCID stock already discounts some pretty good numbers for the future. If the company's forecasts are better than its original slide presentation, expect to see fireworks in LCID stock. Given how strong the EV market is now, I suspect this will be the case.
底线是，LCID的股票已经对未来的一些相当不错的数字进行了折价。如果该公司的预测好于其最初的幻灯片演示文稿，预计会看到LCID库存中的烟花。考虑到电动汽车市场现在的强劲程度，我怀疑情况会是这样。
On the date of publication, Mark Hake did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在本文发表之日，马克·哈克没有(直接或间接)持有本文提到的证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点，受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。
Mark Hake writes about personal finance at mrhake.medium.com and Newsbreak.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.
马克·黑克(Mark Hake)在以下网站撰写个人理财文章Mrhake.medium.com和Newsbreak.com并运行总屈服值指南您可以查看这里.
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