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The sectors to focus on as the holiday season kicks off

The sectors to focus on as the holiday season kicks off

随着假日季的开始,需要关注的行业
InvestorPlace ·  2021/11/22 22:41  · 观点

Last week, we said that market volatility was likely to continue through the inflation and retail sales reports but that we liked the consumer discretionary and tech for new entries after any pullbacks.

上周,我们表示,通过通胀和零售报告,市场波动可能会持续下去,但我们喜欢消费者可自由支配的产品,以及在任何回调后新进入的技术产品。

For the most part, that worked out. The home improvement stocks we highlighted skyrocketed, the tech stocks we mentioned — $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$, and $Adobe(ADBE.US)$ — also did very well.

在很大程度上,这是可行的。我们强调的家装类股飙升,我们提到的科技类股-$微软(MSFT.US)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$,及$Adobe(ADBE.US)$-也做得很好。

Monday and Tuesday of this week are likely to be choppy, and this is a good week to be extra cautious. Yields tanked on Friday, which helps relieve some of the pressure from inflation worries on those same sectors. However, Asian stocks were a little rough on Sunday night, and so far, the U.S. markets are still a little sluggish.

本周的周一和周二可能会震荡,本周是格外谨慎的一周。收益率周五大幅下挫,这有助于缓解这些行业因通胀担忧而带来的部分压力。不过,亚洲股市周日晚间走势有些粗暴,到目前为止,美国市场仍有些迟滞。

One of the reasons for our cautious tone over the past few weeks is the odd price action we are seeing in the high-yield, or junk, bond market. Bond traders are a unique bunch, and they are laser-focused on risks to cash flow, so they often see things stock traders miss.

过去几周我们持谨慎态度的原因之一是,我们在高收益债券市场(即垃圾债券市场)看到了奇怪的价格走势。债券交易员是一群独特的人,他们专注于现金流的风险,因此他们经常看到股票交易员遗漏的东西。

So when high-yield bond traders are selling and the S&P 500 is rising, we go on yellow alert. High-yield bonds fell all last week and look likely to continue.

因此,当高收益债券交易员抛售,标准普尔500指数上涨时,我们就会进入黄色警戒状态。高收益债券上周全部下跌,而且看起来可能会持续。

Capitalizing on the Holidays with Continued Retail Opportunities

利用节假日提供持续的零售机会

Even in the best market conditions, however, this is usually a weird week for the market. As you can imagine, the offices and hallways of the big institutional firms start to look a little deserted around Tuesday afternoon as everyone sneaks out for Thanksgiving.

然而,即使在最好的市场条件下,这一周对市场来说也通常是奇怪的一周。正如你可以想象的那样,周二下午左右,大型机构机构的办公室和走廊开始看起来有点冷清,因为每个人都会偷偷溜出去过感恩节。

Volume on Thanksgiving week is typically 40-60% below average. The same thing happens the week of Christmas, and to a lesser extent around the New Year.

感恩节周的交易量通常比平均水平低40%-60%。同样的事情也发生在圣诞节的那一周,在新年前后程度较小。

So, what should you do?

那么,你应该怎么做呢?

Honestly, there is a narrow window for traders this week to get into something good. Low volumes on Wednesday and Friday can make share price movements too random for our comfort level. We usually sit on the sidelines during the last half of a holiday week so we don't get snagged by a whipsaw.

老实说,本周交易员进入利好市场的机会很小。周三和周五的低成交量可能会使股价波动过于随机,超出我们的舒适度。在假期的最后半周里,我们通常会袖手旁观,这样我们就不会被一把电锯给卡住了。

However, if you missed some of the best stocks last week, we still think there are likely to be some good dip-buying opportunities on Monday and Tuesday if conditions improve, especially in retail:

然而,如果你错过了上周一些最好的股票,我们仍然认为,如果情况改善,周一和周二可能会有一些不错的下探买入机会,特别是在零售领域:

  • $Coca-Cola(KO.US)$: The drop in yields should be a big boost for Coke because the stock is valued based on its dividend. Lower rates are good for dividend payers because bonds are less attractive as an alternative. Any dips into the $52-53 range look good for new entries.

  • $Target(TGT.US)$: Despite killing expectations and upping their forecast for the holiday season, Target took a hit last week. This is not uncommon; traders are known to "sell the news" following an earnings report, no matter how good it is. The upshot here is that any entries in the $240 to $250 range are getting the stock at essentially a discount.

  • $可口可乐(KO.US)$:收益率的下降对可口可乐来说应该是一个很大的提振,因为股票是根据股息来估值的。较低的利率对股息支付者有利,因为债券作为替代选择的吸引力较低。任何跌破52-53美元区间的价格看起来都有利于新的入场券。

  • $Target(TGT.US)$:尽管扼杀了人们的预期,并上调了对假日季的预测,塔吉特上周还是受到了打击。这种情况并不少见;众所周知,交易员会在财报公布后“抛售消息”,不管它有多好。这里的结果是,任何在240美元到250美元之间的参赛作品基本上都是以折扣价获得股票的。

Will "Pandemic Stocks" Make a Comeback?

“流行病股”会卷土重来吗?

This is also a good time to address the issue of rising COVID rates in Europe and Asia because that comes with fears of lockdowns.

这也是解决欧洲和亚洲COVID比率上升问题的好时机,因为这伴随着人们对政府停摆的担忧。

In our view, although rising cases are a tragedy, the rate of change hasn't accelerated to the point that we are worried about stocks in general.

在我们看来,尽管不断上升的案例是一场悲剧,但变化的速度并没有加快到我们普遍担心股市的地步。

Does this mean "pandemic stocks" will surge again? Probably not. Stocks like $Zoom Video Communications(ZM.US)$ or $Chegg(CHGG.US)$ may attract some buying interest this month, but those bubbles popped fast, and traders are going to remember that.

这是否意味着“流行病库存”将再次飙升?大概不会吧。像这样的股票$Zoom Video Communications(ZM.US)$$Chegg(CHGG.US)$本月可能会吸引一些买兴,但这些泡沫很快就会破裂,交易员们会记住这一点。

However, there were a few quasi-pandemic stocks that have done a great job of capitalizing on economic growth as well as distance work, learning, collaboration, and shopping that could still be very interesting.

然而,有几只准大流行股票在利用经济增长以及远程工作、学习、协作和购物方面做得很好,这仍然可能非常有趣。

In that respect, we still like Microsoft, $Amazon(AMZN.US)$, and $eBay(EBAY.US)$ — especially before retail sales reports start to stream in after the long weekend.

在这方面,我们仍然喜欢微软,$亚马逊(AMZN.US)$,及$eBay(EBAY.US)$-特别是在长周末后零售销售报告开始涌入之前。

John Jagerson & Wade Hansen

约翰·贾格森 & 韦德·汉森

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