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Will stock-market bubble burst? Goldman Sachs: Relax

Will stock-market bubble burst? Goldman Sachs: Relax

股市泡沫会破裂吗?高盛(Goldman Sachs):放松
Moomoo News ·  2021/03/24 09:44  · 独家

What is a market bubble?

什么是市场泡沫?

A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets

A 气泡是一种经济周期,其特征是市场价值迅速攀升,特别是在资产价格方面.

This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value or a contraction, which is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

这种快速的通货膨胀之后是价值的快速下降或收缩,这有时被称为“经济衰退”。崩溃“或”泡沫破裂."

Typically, a bubble is created by a surge in asset prices that is driven by exuberant market behavior. During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price, or within a price range, that greatly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value (the price does not align with the fundamentals of the asset).

通常情况下,泡沫是由活跃的市场行为推动的资产价格飙升造成的。在泡沫期间,资产的交易价格或价格范围通常会大大超过资产的内在价值(价格与资产的基本面不一致)。

How does bubble work?

气泡是如何工作的?

Bubbles are typically attributed to a change in investor behavior, although what causes this change in behavior is debated.

泡沫通常被归因于投资者行为的改变,尽管是什么导致了这种行为的改变存在争议。

Bubbles in equities markets and economies cause resources to be transferred to areas of rapid growth. At the end of a bubble, resources are moved again, causing prices to deflate.

股市和经济中的泡沫导致资源转移到快速增长的领域。在泡沫结束时,资源再次被转移,导致价格缩水。

Is there a market bubble now? Goldman Sachs answers.

现在有市场泡沫吗?高盛(Goldman Sachs)回答道。

Investors may be growing anxious about the stock market potentially being in a bubble as its climb to new heights continues relatively unabated. Of note, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid found Google searches for inflation are now at their highest levels since late 2010.

随着股市攀升至新高的势头相对有增无减,投资者可能会越来越担心股市可能处于泡沫之中。值得注意的是,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)发现,谷歌对通胀的搜索目前处于2010年末以来的最高水平。

But Goldman Sachs offered up a comforting take to these worrywarts on Monday.

但高盛(Goldman Sachs)周一向这些忧心忡忡的人提供了安慰。

While there are pockets of excessive valuations in equities, and parts of the market are justifiably de-rating as interest rates adjust, in our assessment only a few of these common characteristics are currently present or being partially met. Typical signs of systemic risk, such as increased leverage in the private sector and a collapse in savings, aren't present.

There are signs of complacency and heightened optimism in the market. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors that drive the market and the early stage of the economic cycle would suggest that we are far away from a bubble or bear market.

-Goldman's global equity strategists

虽然有一些股票估值过高,随着利率的调整,部分市场有理由被降级,但根据我们的评估,目前只有几个这些共同特征存在或部分得到满足。不存在系统性风险的典型迹象,如私营部门杠杆率上升和储蓄暴跌。

市场出现了自满和乐观情绪高涨的迹象。不过,推动市场和经济周期早期阶段的基本面因素表明,我们距离泡沫或熊市还很远。

--高盛全球股票策略师

Source: Investopedia, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg

来源:Investopedia,Yahoo Finance,Bloomberg

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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