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Anglo American: Hopes for a Takeover Battle

Anglo American: Hopes for a Takeover Battle

英美资源集团:收购之战的希望
sharecafe ·  04/28 12:23

Meetings this week of shareholders in Anglo American in London and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) (in Australia) will continue to focus on the fate of BHP's (ASX:BHP) $A60 billion all-share offer for the London-based miner.

本周伦敦英美资源集团和力拓集团(澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码:RIO)(澳大利亚)的股东会议将继续关注必和必拓(澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码:BHP)向这家总部位于伦敦的矿业公司提出的600亿澳元全股要约的命运。

BHP shares fell a modest 3.7% last week thanks to the offer news -- but Anglo shares jumped 24% in the hope of a takeover battle and higher prices.

由于要约消息,必和必拓股价上周小幅下跌了3.7%,但盎格鲁股价上涨了24%,希望收购之战和价格上涨。

Anglo's meeting is in London on Tuesday (8pm Sydney time) and Rio's meeting is at 9.30am on Thursday in Brisbane. Both will be watched in person or online for comments on the BHP offer.

盎格鲁会议将于周二(悉尼时间晚上8点)在伦敦举行,里约会议将于周四上午9点30分在布里斯班举行。两者都将亲自或在线观看,以征求对必和必拓报价的评论。

Anglo can be expected to continue to reject the approach with the aim of getting better terms (some cash please?).

可以预计,盎格鲁将继续拒绝这种做法,目的是获得更好的条件(请给点现金?)。

Reuters claimed at the weekend that BHP was considering a higher offer, but those sorts of leaks and stories are part and parcel of big deals.

路透社在周末声称,必和必拓正在考虑更高的报价,但这类泄密和报道是大宗交易的重要组成部分。

You would have to say that in deals of this size, the first bid won't succeed unless it contains an awful lot of cash -- and BHP's doesn't, so a new structure will no doubt emerge soon.

你不得不说,在如此规模的交易中,除非包含大量现金,否则第一次出价不会成功,而必和必拓不是,因此新的结构无疑很快就会出现。

Rio will be watched to see if it shows any interest. Brokers and analysts are trying to rev up a bidding war for Anglo involving Rio or Glencore.

里约热内卢将受到关注,看看它是否表现出兴趣。经纪商和分析师正试图加剧涉及里约或嘉能可的盎格鲁竞标战。

Rio, though, is limited financially, with a $US10 billion contribution to the development of the huge Simandou iron ore project (with Chinese and local partners) in Guinea over the next two years as well as normal capex. Glencore has a $US6.9 billion purchase of the coking coal operations of Teck Resources and a commitment to keep debt low for the next couple of years.

但是,里约热内卢的财务状况有限,未来两年将为几内亚庞大的西曼杜铁矿石项目(与中国和当地合作伙伴合作)的开发提供100亿美元的捐款,并保持正常的资本支出。嘉能可将69亿美元收购泰克资源的炼焦煤业务,并承诺在未来几年内将债务保持在较低水平。

Glencore is also hamstrung by the fact that the Teck deal doesn't settle until the third quarter of this year, and global competition approvals for that deal will give us an idea of how any deal between BHP and Anglo American might be received.

泰克的交易要到今年第三季度才能达成协议,这也使嘉能可受到阻碍,而该交易的全球竞争批准将使我们了解必和必拓与英美资源集团之间的任何协议将如何获得批准。

Any analyst or investor -- or their media mouthpieces -- who touts Rio or Glencore as being interested shouldn't be believed if they do not mention the Simandou costs in the case of Rio and Glencore's Teck deal (with its added debt burden).

任何吹捧里约或嘉能可感兴趣的分析师或投资者,或者他们的媒体喉舌,如果不提及里约和嘉能可的泰克交易中的西曼杜成本(债务负担增加),就不应该被相信。

Analysts and some anonymous big shareholders assert that Anglo's fate is sealed and it will be taken over and broken up, even if BHP doesn't get control.

分析师和一些匿名的大股东断言,盎格鲁的命运已经确定,即使必和必拓没有控制权,它也会被接管和解体。

But, as usual, investors are remote from the real world where politics and resources come together, and it is a reminder than in the end China will be the big 'Yes" or "No' factor for the eventual fate of the offer, not the price of the deal.

但是,像往常一样,投资者远离政治和资源汇聚的现实世界,这提醒人们,归根结底,中国将是决定该报价最终命运的重大 “是” 或 “否” 因素,而不是交易的价格。

Anglo American rejected BHP's offer as undervaluing the company and therefore unattractive to its shareholders.

英美资源集团拒绝了必和必拓的提议,因为该提议低估了该公司的估值,因此对股东没有吸引力。

That means it would seem to be a matter of price -- but there is a lot more.

这意味着这似乎是一个价格问题,但还有更多。

Analysis focused on how buying Anglo American would add substantial scale to BHP's core commodities core, coking coal and iron ore.

分析的重点是收购英美资源集团将如何大幅增加必和必拓的核心大宗商品——炼焦煤和铁矿石的规模。

So far as copper is concerned, Peru, Chile and the South Australian government will have a say here -- and of course, China.

就铜而言,秘鲁、智利和南澳大利亚州政府将在这里有发言权,当然还有中国。

China will have a say on iron ore -- as will Brazil and its big iron ore miner, Vale, which is in a joint venture with BHP in the Samarco iron pellet business. There are potentially very large legal judgments facing the company in London, which could spark a battle between BHP and Vale.

中国将在铁矿石问题上拥有发言权,巴西及其大型铁矿石开采商淡水河谷也将拥有发言权,后者与必和必拓合资经营萨马可铁颗粒业务。该公司在伦敦可能面临非常大的法律判决,这可能会引发必和必拓与淡水河谷之间的斗争。

Coal won't be a problem, and Australian approval for the purchase of Anglo's five mines will be quick in coming, if the deal is approved in other places. Seeing BHP sold off Daunia and Blackwater coal mines in central Queensland to Whitehaven, just how many of Anglo's mines will be held is up in the air.

煤炭不会成为问题,如果交易在其他地方获得批准,澳大利亚将很快批准收购盎格鲁的五个矿山。看到必和必拓将昆士兰州中部的道尼亚和黑水煤矿出售给怀特黑文,盎格鲁到底有多少矿山悬而未决。

The 85% stake in DeBeers is slated to be sold, but not yet with world diamond prices weak and facing more pressure from manmade gems.

德比尔斯85%的股份计划出售,但由于世界钻石价格疲软,面临来自人造宝石的更大压力,尚未出售。

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