Gold Investors Should Own These ETFs, Says Bank Of America: Why Analysts Expect Gold Spike To $2,600
Gold Investors Should Own These ETFs, Says Bank Of America: Why Analysts Expect Gold Spike To $2,600
Gold prices are projected to rise to $2,500-$2,600 per ounce, representing an attractive portfolio hedge for equity investors, according to a Bank of America report published this week.
根据美国银行本周发布的一份报告，预计黄金价格将上涨至每盎司2500-2600美元，这对股票投资者来说是一个有吸引力的投资组合对冲工具。
As the precious metal surged to fresh record highs following the Fed March meeting, investment and ETF strategist Jared Woodard from Bank of America identified two primary engines driving gold's unprecedented rally: its hedging quality and central bank purchases.
随着美联储3月会议后贵金属飙升至历史新高，美国银行的投资和ETF策略师贾里德·伍德德确定了推动黄金前所未有上涨的两个主要引擎：其套期保值质量和央行购买量。
Chart: Gold Hit Record Highs Post-Fed March 2024 Meeting
图表：金价在美联储2024年3月会议后创下历史新高
Key Drivers Sending Gold To Record Highs
关键驱动因素使黄金创下历史新高
"Gold has the lowest correlation to the S&P 500 of almost any asset class and can act as a haven if inflation reaccelerates or growth slows later this year," Woodard wrote.
伍德德写道：“在几乎所有资产类别中，黄金与标准普尔500指数的相关性最低，如果今年晚些时候通货膨胀重新加速或增长放缓，黄金可以充当避风港。”
Woodard highlighted that "central banks have been hoarding gold like never before," accumulating over 2,100 tons in the past two years.
伍德德强调说，“中央银行以前所未有的方式囤积黄金”，在过去两年中积累了超过2,100吨黄金。
The expert also stressed that unlike previous rallies, the current surge in gold's value has largely bypassed retail investors. This is evidenced by a 25% drop in total ETF gold holdings, suggesting that prices could have been even higher if retail participation mirrored that of institutional entities.
该专家还强调，与之前的涨势不同，当前黄金价值的飙升在很大程度上绕过了散户投资者。ETF黄金总持有量下降了25％就证明了这一点，这表明如果零售参与度反映机构实体的参与度，价格可能会更高。
This gap presents a potential for increased demand, especially if yields decrease, possibly driving prices to the $2500-$2600 range, as predicted by Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana.
正如美国银行技术分析师保罗·西亚纳所预测的那样，这种缺口有可能增加需求，尤其是在收益率下降的情况下，可能会将价格推高至2500美元至2600美元的区间。
A Preference for Physical Gold ETFs Over Miners
与矿业相比，更偏爱实物黄金ETF
When considering how to get exposure to gold, Woodard and his team advocate for physical gold ETFs, such as iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:IAUM) and SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (NYSE:GLDM), which are less expensive than the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU).
在考虑如何获得黄金敞口时，伍德德和他的团队主张实物黄金ETF，例如iShares Gold Trust Micro（纽约证券交易所代码：IAUM）和SPDR黄金迷你股信托（纽约证券交易所代码：GLD）和iShares Gold Trust（纽约证券交易所代码：IAU）便宜。
Physical gold ETFs are also preferred versus miner ETFs, as the former offers a more stable and direct exposure to the commodity's value.
与矿业ETF相比，实物黄金ETF也更受青睐，因为前者为大宗商品的价值提供了更稳定、更直接的敞口。
Bank of America showed that in the long timeframe, gold mining ETFs have not kept pace with their physical counterparts, partly due to the presence of mining companies disproportionately affected by downturns, diluting potential gains.
美国银行表示，从长远来看，金矿开采ETF跟不上实物交易所买卖基金的步伐，部分原因是矿业公司的存在受到经济衰退的影响尤其严重，削弱了潜在收益。
The expert recommended prioritizing mining stocks with a higher ratio of upside to downside beta, such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM), to capitalize on gold's positive trajectory while mitigating risk.
该专家建议优先考虑上行/下行贝塔值比率较高的矿业股，例如巴里克黄金公司（纽约证券交易所代码：GOLD）或纽蒙特公司（纽约证券交易所代码：NEM），以利用黄金的积极走势，同时降低风险。
In the mining ETFs arena, Bank of America's preference is on the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:RING) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) as it "offers above average risk-adjusted returns and buy-rated stock exposure" compared to Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:SGDM) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ)
在矿业ETF领域，美国银行偏爱iShares MSCI全球黄金矿业ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：RING）和VanEck Gold Miners ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：GDX），因为与Sprott Gold Miners ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：GDM）和VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：GDM）相比，它 “提供高于平均水平的风险调整后回报和买入评级股票敞口”
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Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock