Gold Bull Peter Schiff Warns US Q4 Growth Is Really 'A Credit Bubble' Amid $834B Surge In National Debt
Gold Bull Peter Schiff Warns US Q4 Growth Is Really 'A Credit Bubble' Amid $834B Surge In National Debt
Revised estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the U.S. economy grew at a robust pace in the fourth quarter. However, economist Peter Schiff remains skeptical about the quality of this growth.
经济分析局发布的修订估计显示，美国经济在第四季度以强劲的速度增长。但是，经济学家彼得·希夫仍然对这种增长的质量持怀疑态度。
What Happened: According to Schiff, citing data from the BEA, annualized nominal GDP rose by $334 billion year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Despite this apparent growth, Schiff pointed out that the national debt increased by over $834 billion during the same period, more than double the GDP growth.
发生了什么：希夫援引东亚银行的数据称，第四季度年化名义GDP同比增长3340亿美元。尽管出现了明显的增长，但希夫指出，同期国民债务增加了超过8,340亿美元，是国内生产总值增长的两倍多。
Schiff emphasized that this debt doesn't even include changes in consumer credit levels during the same period.
希夫强调，这笔债务甚至不包括同期消费者信贷水平的变化。
"This isn't economic growth. It's a credit bubble," he said.
“这不是经济增长。这是信贷泡沫，” 他说。
According to the Govt., U.S. #GDP "grew" by $334 billion In Q4. Yet during that same quarter the #NationalDebt rose by over $834 billion, or 2.5x as much. That doesn't even count the growth in debt that consumers took on directly. This isn't economic growth. It's a credit bubble.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 28, 2024
根据政府的说法，美国 #GDP 在第四季度 “增长” 了3340亿美元。然而，在同一季度，#NationalDebt 增长了超过8,340亿美元，增长了2.5倍。这甚至还不包括消费者直接承担的债务的增长。这不是经济增长。这是信贷泡沫。
— 彼得·希夫 (@PeterSchiff) 2024 年 2 月 28 日
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Why It Matters: Proponents of Bidenomics argue that the current administration's policies have helped the economy recover from the COVID-19-induced downturn in 2020. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.8% in 2021 after contracting by 2.2% in 2020, largely due to COVID-19 stimulus measures. However, growth moderated to 1.9% before picking up to 2.5% in 2023, amid rising interest rates and inflation.
为何重要：Bidenomics的支持者认为，现任政府的政策已帮助经济在2020年从COVID-19引发的衰退中复苏。实际国内生产总值增长在2020年收缩了2.2％之后，在2021年加速至5.8％，这主要是由于 COVID-19 的刺激措施。然而，在利率和通货膨胀率上升的情况下，增长放缓至1.9％，然后在2023年回升至2.5％。
As Schiff highlighted, the national debt has been increasing rapidly, driven by unsustainable spending. The interest on the debt is now estimated to exceed spending on military or other major items, except Social Security or the Department of Health and Human Services.
正如希夫所强调的那样，在不可持续支出的推动下，国民债务一直在迅速增加。据估计，债务利息将超过军事或其他主要项目的支出，社会保障或卫生与公共服务部除外。
Despite resilient consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, U.S. consumers have been living beyond their means. Outstanding U.S. consumer credit stood at $5.01 trillion in December, with revolving credit tied to credit cards climbing to $1.31 trillion.
尽管消费者支出弹性强，推动了约三分之二的经济活动，但美国消费者一直过着无法承受的生活。12月，美国未偿还的消费者信贷为5.01万亿美元，与信用卡挂钩的循环信贷攀升至1.31万亿美元。
While some analysts, such as Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, are optimistic about continued accelerated growth due to technological innovation, others, like Schiff, remain cautious about the sustainability of the current economic trajectory.
尽管一些分析师，例如方舟投资创始人凯西·伍德，对技术创新带来的持续加速增长持乐观态度，但其他分析师，例如希夫，对当前经济轨迹的可持续性仍持谨慎态度。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the broader S&P 500 Index, ended Wednesday's session down 0.10% to $505.76, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据，追踪更广泛的标准普尔500指数表现的交易所交易基金SPDR标准普尔500指数信托基金（纽约证券交易所代码：SPY）周三收盘下跌0.10％，至505.76美元。
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