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Volatility in options trading

Volatility in options trading

期权交易的波动性
Moomoo News ·  2020/09/24 11:38  · Most Read

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Volatility 

波动率

Volatility is the measurement of the amount by which the price of the underlying security is expected to fluctuate over a given period of time. Generally speaking, stocks that fluctuate over a wide price range have more volatility. 

波动率是对标的证券价格在一段时间内的预期波动量的衡量。一般来说,在较大价格区间内波动的股票波动性较大。

Typically, with all other factors being equal, an option’s time value will be higher on a stock with greater volatility. Earthquake insurance will cost more in San Francisco than in Chicago because San Francisco can "move" more.  

通常,在所有其他因素相同的情况下,波动性较大的股票的期权时间价值会更高。旧金山的地震保险成本将高于芝加哥,因为旧金山可以“搬家”得更多。

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For example, take two stocks trading at 100. The 105 May calls on both stocks are $5 out-of-the-money and therefore have no intrinsic value, just time value. The premium for the 105 May calls is at $1 for Stock  A and $2 for Stock B. Even though both options have the same time remaining, Stock B’s calls are trading $1 higher than Stock A’s. This is because Stock B is more volatile. The market is saying that Stock B has a greater chance of moving to 105 than Stock A. Therefore, Stock B demands a higher premium.

例如,有两只股票的交易价格为100美元。这两只股票的105个5月看涨期权都是5美元的现金流,因此没有内在价值,只有时间价值。股票A的105个看涨期权的溢价为1美元,股票B的溢价为2美元。尽管这两个期权的剩余时间相同,但股票B的看涨期权的交易价格比股票A的高出1美元。这是因为股票B的波动性更大。市场认为B股比A股更有可能涨到105,因此,B股要求更高的溢价。

Historical Volatility

历史波动性

Historical volatility is a statistical measurement of a stock’s price movements based on history. Typically, it is calculated by taking the standard deviation of the stock’s daily closing price over the past 21 trading days.

历史波动性是基于历史对股票价格变动的统计衡量。通常情况下,它是通过取过去21个交易日股票每日收盘价的标准差来计算的。

Implied Volatility

隐含波动率

Implied volatility is the volatility derived from looking at the current market price of an option. Option prices don’t imply a direction of movement for the stock. They only imply a probable distribution or volatility. Increased volatility increases the expected value of an option, but not the expected value of a stock.

隐含波动率是通过观察期权的当前市场价格而得出的波动率。期权价格并不意味着股票的走势。它们只意味着可能的分布或波动性。波动性增加会增加期权的期望值,但不会增加股票的期望值。

Although there are more technical methods of measuring volatility, it is a general rule that if the stock is flat, volatility should be low. If the stock is fluctuating greatly, volatility should be high. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk, and thus option sellers will demand more Option premium. 

虽然衡量波动率的技术方法较多,但一般规则是,如果股票持平,波动率应该较低。如果股票波动很大,波动性应该很大。波动率越高,风险就越高,因此期权卖家会要求更高的期权溢价。

The market ultimately determines an options price. The "market" includes market makers, liquidity providers, hedge funds, institutional investors, the public, and even YOU. Remember, the intrinsic or real value of an option will always be constant. The intrinsic value of the 50 call with the stock at 51 will always be $1.00.

市场最终决定期权价格。“市场”包括做市商、流动性提供者、对冲基金、机构投资者、公众,甚至你。记住,期权的内在价值或实际价值总是不变的。股价在51美元的50看涨期权的内在价值永远是1.00美元。

However, the options will most likely be trading for more than $1 due to its time value. The time value is determined primarily by the distance the option’s strike price is to the stock price, the stock’s volatility, the current demand for the option,  and the volatility of the stock. 

然而,由于时间价值,期权的交易价格很可能超过1美元。时间价值主要由期权的执行价格与股票价格的距离、股票的波动性、当前对期权的需求以及股票的波动性来决定。

The more stock can move in price the more money option sellers will want to receive and the more options buyers will have to pay for an option. The marketplace, which factors in all these variables, determines at what price we can buy or sell an option for in the same fashion it establishes stock prices.

股票的价格变动越大,期权卖家想要得到的钱就越多,买家需要为期权支付的期权也就越多。市场决定了我们可以以什么价格买入或卖出一个期权,就像它确定股票价格一样,它将所有这些变量都考虑在内。

by Eli

作者:Eli

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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