AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?
AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?
AIA Group (HKG:1299) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 25% over the last three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on AIA Group's ROE.
友邦保险(HKG：1299)的股票在过去三个月中大幅上涨了25%。然而，我们想知道该公司不一致的财务数据是否会对当前的股价势头产生不利影响。在本文中，我们决定将重点放在友邦保险的净资产收益率上。
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
股本回报率(ROE)是用来评估公司管理层利用公司资本效率的关键指标。简而言之，它是用来评估一家公司相对于其权益资本的盈利能力。
See our latest analysis for AIA Group
参见我们对友邦保险的最新分析
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
你如何计算股本回报率？
The formula for return on equity is:
这个股本回报率公式是：
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
股本回报率=(持续经营的)净利润？股东权益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AIA Group is:
因此，根据上述公式，友邦保险的净资产收益率为：
8.8% = US$3.7b ÷ US$41b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
8.8%=37亿美元×410亿美元(基于截至2022年6月的12个月的往绩)。
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made HK$0.09 in profit.
“报税表”是过去12个月的税后收入。一种将其概念化的方法是，公司每持有1港元的股东资本，就能获得0.09港元的利润。
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
净资产收益率与盈利增长之间有什么关系？
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
我们已经证实，净资产收益率是一家公司未来收益的有效盈利指标。根据公司将这些利润再投资或“保留”多少，以及这样做的效率如何，我们就能够评估一家公司的收益增长潜力。一般来说，在其他条件相同的情况下，股本回报率和利润留存较高的公司比不具备这些特征的公司有更高的增长率。
AIA Group's Earnings Growth And 8.8% ROE
友邦保险的盈利增长和8.8%的净资产收益率
When you first look at it, AIA Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.2%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. We can see that AIA Group has grown at a five year net income growth average rate of 3.6%, which is a bit on the lower side. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high . Hence, this does provide some context to low earnings growth seen by the company.
乍一看，友邦保险的ROE看起来并没有那么吸引人。不过，其净资产收益率接近8.2%的行业平均水平，因此我们不会完全对该公司不屑一顾。我们可以看到，友邦保险五年的净收入平均增长率为3.6%，有点偏低。请记住，该公司的净资产收益率并不是很高。因此，这确实为该公司看到的低收益增长提供了一些背景。
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that AIA Group's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 4.6% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.
接下来，对比行业净收入增长，我们发现友邦保险的报告增长低于同期行业4.6%的增长，这是我们不愿意看到的。
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 1299? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
盈利增长是股票估值的一个重要因素。投资者应该尝试确定预期的收益增长或下降是否已计入价格，无论是哪种情况。这有助于他们确定这只股票是为光明还是黯淡的未来做准备。市场是否已经消化了1299的未来前景？你可以在我们最新的内在价值信息图研究报告中找到答案。
Is AIA Group Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
友邦保险是否有效地将其利润进行了再投资？
Despite having a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 36% (implying that the company retains the remaining 64% of its income), AIA Group's earnings growth was quite low. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
尽管友邦保险的三年派息率中值适中，为36%(这意味着该公司保留了剩余的64%的收入)，但他的盈利增长相当低。因此，可能还有其他一些原因来解释这方面的缺乏。例如，这项业务可能正在衰落。
Additionally, AIA Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 33%. However, AIA Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 15% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.
此外，友邦保险至少在十年内分红，这意味着公司管理层决心分红，即使这意味着收益几乎没有增长。我们最新的分析师数据显示，该公司未来三年的派息率预计约为33%。然而，友邦保险的净资产收益率预计将上升至15%，尽管其派息率没有预期的变化。
Summary
摘要
Overall, we have mixed feelings about AIA Group. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
总体而言，我们对友邦保险的感情复杂。虽然该公司的再投资率确实很高，但低ROE意味着所有的再投资都没有给投资者带来任何好处，而且对收益增长产生了负面影响。尽管如此，最新的行业分析师预测显示，该公司的收益预计将加速增长。要了解更多分析师对该公司的最新预测，请查看分析师对该公司预测的可视化。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写，具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议，也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意，我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。